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Finance & Markets · Asia

Pakistan lowers FY26 growth forecast as fourth-quarter expansion slows to 2%

Pakistan’s National Accounts Committee lowered its estimate of GDP growth for fiscal year 2025–26 to 3.65 percent from 3.70 percent. The committee reported fourth-quarter growth of 2 percent, while the economy’s value for FY26 was put at Rs.

AI-assisted synthesis · Based on 4 independent reports from 5 outlets · Article text read from 2 of 4 reportsHow it's made

View timeline · 4 entries
5 outlets2 regionsLatest reporting 3 min read
Coverage: Center OnlyL 0 · C 4 · R 0 · 1 unrated
Updat3 graphic: Pakistan
Updat3 graphic · Map data: Natural Earth Natural Earth (public domain)

What happened

Key facts

  • Pakistan’s GDP growth estimate for FY26 was revised down to 3.65 percent from 3.70 percent (per dailypakistan.com.pk).
  • Fourth-quarter growth was 6.07 percent in the corresponding period of FY25 (per dailypakistan.com.pk).
  • Fourth-quarter growth was 2 percent, compared with 4.4 percent in the previous quarter (per thenews.pk).
  • Pakistan’s economy was valued at Rs. 126.4 trillion, equivalent to $450.4 billion, during FY26 (per dailypakistan.com.pk).
  • The National Accounts Committee approved revisions at its 118th meeting at the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (per dailypakistan.com.pk).
  • The committee approved incorporation of revised import data into national accounts estimates from FY2021 through FY2025, along with quarterly GDP rates for all four quarters of FY2026 and updated annual rates for FY2025 and FY2026 (per thenews.pk).
  • Mining and quarrying growth was revised upward to 1.52 percent from 0.38 percent (per dailypakistan.com.pk).

The brief

Pakistan’s National Accounts Committee lowered its estimate of GDP growth for fiscal year 2025–26 to 3.65 percent from the earlier provisional figure of 3.70 percent, while putting growth in the final quarter at 2 percent. The revised annual estimate followed the committee’s review of national accounts data and was approved at a meeting at the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics.

The final-quarter figure showed a marked slowdown against the preceding period. The News reported that growth fell from 4.4 percent in the third quarter, covering January to March, to 2 percent in the fourth quarter, which it identified as April to June 2026.

Daily Pakistan reported that the final-quarter result was well below the 6.07 percent growth recorded in the same period of FY25. The committee also revised the previous fiscal year’s growth rate downward, to 3.11 percent from 3.18 percent.

Those adjustments mean the latest set of national accounts contains updated annual estimates for FY25 and FY26 as well as quarterly figures for FY26, rather than only a new full-year estimate. According to The News, the committee approved revised import data for national accounts estimates spanning FY2021 to FY2025.

The meeting was chaired by the acting secretary planning at the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics. Daily Pakistan likewise said the revisions followed adjustments to import data and other annual and quarterly economic indicators, and reported that the committee approved them at its 118th meeting. The sector detail was not uniformly negative.

Daily Pakistan said mining and quarrying growth was recalculated upward to 1.52 percent from 0.38 percent. The News reported that livestock growth was revised down from 3.75 percent to 3.71 percent, attributing the change to increased fodder inputs.

Daily Pakistan also reported that the industrial sector contracted sharply in the final quarter, as overall quarterly growth slowed. The News described the fourth-quarter change as a drastic correction. The two outlets agree on the 2 percent quarterly growth figure and the 3.65 percent revised annual estimate, while offering different sector details and comparisons.

The revisions matter because they change the official measure of recent economic performance: FY26 growth is now estimated at 3.65 percent, and FY25 growth at 3.11 percent. The economy’s value during FY26 was reported as Rs. 126.4 trillion, equivalent to $450.4 billion.

The revised accounts provide updated annual and quarterly measurements, but the reports do not give a breakdown of how the changes affect household incomes or employment.

Why it matters

  • The National Accounts Committee’s revision changes the reported FY26 growth rate from 3.70 percent to 3.65 percent, while fourth-quarter growth is estimated at 2 percent.
  • The revised quarterly figures show a slowdown from 4.4 percent in the previous quarter, according to The News, and a level below the 6.07 percent recorded in the corresponding FY25 quarter, according to Daily Pakistan.
  • The committee’s updated accounts incorporate import data across FY2021–FY2025, affecting the statistical basis for annual and quarterly economic measurements.
  • The reported FY26 economy value is Rs. 126.4 trillion, or $450.4 billion; the reports do not quantify effects on household incomes or employment.

What to watch next

  • Whether the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics publishes further national accounts revisions following the committee’s approval of updated annual and quarterly figures.
  • How the revised quarterly and annual GDP figures are reflected in subsequent official economic reporting.
  • Whether later official data provides more detail on the industrial contraction reported for the final quarter.
  • Whether subsequent national accounts estimates retain the revised mining, quarrying and livestock growth rates.

How it's being covered

Coverage analysisShow details
5 source articles · 5 unique outlets · 4 distinct reports
Outlet political mix: Center Only· 4 Center · 1 unrated
Where the outlets are based: Asia 80% · Europe 20%
Outlet political mix
Center Only
Left
Center
Right
0 outlets
4 outlets
0 outlets
The marker shows coverage balance: each unique outlet counts once. 1 unrated outlet is not included.
Geography
Where the outlets covering this story are based.
5 unique outletsDominant coverage: Asia
Coverage imbalance
  • Coverage is currently concentrated among Center-rated outlets (4 of 4 rated sources); comparatively few Left or Right-rated outlets have published on the event.
  • Coverage is currently concentrated among outlets based in Asia (4 of 5 geographically-identified sources).
How we measure coverage

How outlets' accounts compare

1 framing difference · 1 uncorroborated claim · 1 information gap
The reports repeat the same account with different emphasis; its central claims are not independently confirmed in the reporting Updat3 read.Compared across 2 reports whose article text Updat3 read; 2 other outlets were checked by headline only.
Framing / emphasis differences
Sources emphasise different angles, actors or consequences of the same reporting.
  • Daily Pakistan emphasizes a sharp final-quarter slowdown and a reported industrial contraction, while The News calls the quarterly adjustment a drastic correction and gives the previous quarter’s 4.4 percent rate.
Updat3: These are differences of emphasis, not disputes about what is reported. They do not show that the reported claims are true.
One-sided or uncorroborated claims
Claims that come from one party or one source family and are not independently corroborated.
  • The News attributes the livestock growth revision, from 3.75 percent to 3.71 percent, to increased fodder inputs.
Updat3: Not independently corroborated yet — treat as a claim, not an established fact.
Not established by the reporting
Information the available reporting does not contain or confirm. This is a gap, not a disagreement.
  • The reports do not identify effects of the revised GDP figures on household incomes, employment, or specific population groups.
Updat3: Updat3 cannot conclude anything about this from the current sources.

Timeline

Developments from this story's sources, dated background we compiled and fact-checked, and our earlier coverage. Each row says which.
  1. The PBS was created in 2011 under the General Statistics (Reorganization) Act, which consolidated federal statistical functions.
    Background · from our historical context
  2. Pakistan’s National Accounts Committee estimated GDP growth at 2.38 percent for FY2023–24.
    Background · compiled and fact-checked by Updat3
  3. Pakistan’s National Accounts Committee estimated GDP growth at 2.68 percent for FY2024–25.
    Background · compiled and fact-checked by Updat3
  4. Pakistan’s FY2025–26 budget set a GDP growth target of 4.2 percent.
    Background · compiled and fact-checked by Updat3

How we got here

Pakistan’s national accounts are compiled by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), with estimates reviewed by the National Accounts Committee. The PBS was created in 2011 under the General Statistics (Reorganization) Act, which consolidated federal statistical functions.

A major foundation for the current GDP series was the rebasing of Pakistan’s national accounts from base year 2005–06 to 2015–16, approved by the committee in 2022.

Original sources

5 articles from 5 outlets

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