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Politics · Middle East

Polymarket reviews new accounts after profitable Israel election bets

Polymarket is examining newly created accounts that bet on Benjamin Netanyahu and Likud shortly before Israel’s October 27 election polls closed. Bloomberg found more than 600 same-day wallets without prior trading history, while Polymarket’s review remains inconclusive.

AI-assisted synthesis · Based on 4 independent reports from 5 outlets · Article text read from 1 of 4 reportsHow it's made

View timeline · 12 entries
5 outlets3 regionsLatest reporting 3 min read
Coverage: MixedL 0 · C 2 · R 2 · 1 unrated
Updat3 graphic: Israel
Updat3 graphic · Map data: Natural Earth Natural Earth (public domain)

What happened

Key facts

  • Polymarket is investigating trades connected to Israel’s election (per The Straits Times, thedefiant.io, Reuters).
  • Hundreds of new accounts bet shortly before polls closed on October 27 that Benjamin Netanyahu and Likud would do better than their opponents (per The Straits Times).
  • Some accounts together cashed out more than US$100,000 after exit polls showed Netanyahu’s party winning more seats than early reports indicated (per The Straits Times).
  • One newly created account could make about US$180,000 if both its Netanyahu and Likud bets pay out (per The Straits Times).
  • Polymarket halted trading on October 29 and contacted law enforcement after users reported that funds had been stolen (per The Straits Times).

The brief

Polymarket is reviewing newly created accounts that placed profitable bets on Benjamin Netanyahu and his Likud party shortly before polls closed in Israel’s October 27 election. The Straits Times reported that the accounts bet the two would outperform their opponents.

The company’s internal investigative team is examining dozens of newly created wallets that traded on the election. Bloomberg’s analysis of Polymarket’s blockchain ledger identified more than 600 wallets created on the same day, with no earlier trading history. The Straits Times said hundreds of new accounts placed bets shortly before the polls closed.

The figures describe different scopes: the company’s review covers dozens of wallets, while Bloomberg’s analysis found more than 600 same-day wallets. Some accounts together cashed out more than US$100,000 after exit polls indicated Netanyahu’s party had won more seats than early reports suggested.

One newly created account could earn about US$180,000 if both its bets on Netanyahu and Likud pay out. The Straits Times reported that Netanyahu’s odds on Polymarket rose to 59% after polls closed, while Eisenkot’s fell to 21%. Polysights and Bubblemaps told Bloomberg they had flagged the trades as suspicious and were examining the activity.

The initial analysis remains inconclusive, according to the Straits Times. It reported that distinguishing insider trading from independent research or fortunate bets can be difficult; the account does not establish that the traders had access to nonpublic information.

Separately, Polymarket halted trading on October 29 and contacted law enforcement after users reported stolen funds. The Straits Times did not identify a connection between that matter and the election bets. The events are distinct in the account: one concerns the company’s examination of election-market activity, while the other followed user reports about missing funds.

On October 29, Democratic senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Republican senator John Curtis of Utah sent a letter to Polymarket and its rival Kalshi. The Straits Times said the senators raised concerns about whether the exchanges can effectively police insider trading and manipulation in election markets.

The investigation, the outside examination by Polysights and Bubblemaps, and the senators’ letter are the documented scrutiny of the trades and the platforms’ oversight described in the report.

Why it matters

  • More than US$100,000 was cashed out by some accounts together after exit polls showed Netanyahu’s party winning more seats than early reports indicated.
  • A single account could earn about US$180,000 if both its Netanyahu and Likud bets pay out.
  • Polymarket’s review and the examinations by Polysights and Bubblemaps concern whether the trades were suspicious, while the initial analysis remains inconclusive.
  • Elizabeth Warren and John Curtis focused their letter on policing insider trading and manipulation in election markets.

What to watch next

  • Whether Polymarket’s review of newly created election-trading wallets produces further findings.
  • Whether Polysights or Bubblemaps reach conclusions about the trades they flagged.
  • Whether Polymarket or Kalshi address the concerns in the October 29 letter from Elizabeth Warren and John Curtis.
  • Whether law enforcement takes further action after Polymarket contacted it following user reports of stolen funds.

How it's being covered

Coverage analysisShow details
5 source articles · 5 unique outlets · 4 distinct reports
Outlet political mix: Mixed· 2 Center · 2 Right · 1 unrated
Where the outlets are based: US/Canada 20% · Middle East 20% · Other 60%
Outlet political mix
Mixed
Left
Center
Right
0 outlets
2 outlets
2 outlets
The marker shows coverage balance: each unique outlet counts once. 1 unrated outlet is not included.
Geography
Where the outlets covering this story are based.
5 unique outletsDominant coverage: US/Canada
How we measure coverage

One source is from a wire service (AP, Reuters, AFP or Bloomberg), whose reporting other outlets often republish.

How outlets' accounts compare

Updat3 does not yet have enough full reports to compare how outlets framed this story.

Timeline

Developments from this story's sources, dated background we compiled and fact-checked, and our earlier coverage. Each row says which.
  1. The Commodity Exchange Act, first enacted in 1936 and subsequently amended, provides the basis for CFTC regulation of commodity futures and related markets.
    Background · from our historical context
  2. Likud was founded in Israel.
    Background · compiled and fact-checked by Updat3
  3. Benjamin Netanyahu became prime minister after winning Israel’s first direct election for the office.
    Background · compiled and fact-checked by Updat3
  4. Israel abolished direct prime-ministerial elections in 2001, returning to a parliamentary system in which the Knesset’s composition determines who can form a government.
    Background · from our historical context
  5. Polymarket launched as a prediction-market platform.
    Background · compiled and fact-checked by Updat3
  6. That result followed the March 23, 2021 election, when Likud won 30 seats but Netanyahu did not assemble a governing majority.
    Background · from our historical context
  7. The CFTC said Polymarket had operated an unregistered facility and offered unregistered event-based binary options; the company agreed to pay a $1.4 million penalty.
    Background · compiled and fact-checked by Updat3
  8. Israel’s November 1, 2022 election was the previous national vote that returned Benjamin Netanyahu and Likud to power.
    Background · from our historical context
  9. Likud won 32 seats in the 120-member Knesset, and parties backing Netanyahu secured a 64-seat majority; he was sworn in as prime minister on December 29, 2022.
    Background · from our historical context
  10. Benjamin Netanyahu’s new government was sworn in after the 2022 election.
    Background · compiled and fact-checked by Updat3
  11. Yechiel Leiter told CNN that Benjamin Netanyahu was interested in forming a broader coalition after the next election.
    Background · compiled and fact-checked by Updat3
  12. Hundreds of new accounts bet shortly before polls closed on October 27 that Benjamin Netanyahu and Likud would do better than their opponents.
    Reported in this story's sourcesSource:The Straits Times

How we got here

Israel’s November 1, 2022 election was the previous national vote that returned Benjamin Netanyahu and Likud to power. Likud won 32 seats in the 120-member Knesset, and parties backing Netanyahu secured a 64-seat majority; he was sworn in as prime minister on December 29, 2022.

That result followed the March 23, 2021 election, when Likud won 30 seats but Netanyahu did not assemble a governing majority. Its legal status in the United States became a defining issue on January 3, 2022, when the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said the platform had operated an unregistered facility and offered unregistered event-based binary options.

Original sources

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