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Energy · Asia Pacific

Australian households leave gas as east coast demand is forecast to fall

Households across Australia are disconnecting from gas networks or choosing homes without gas connections, while a forecast projects east coast residential and small commercial gas demand will drop about 79 per cent over 20 years. Victoria’s ban on domestic gas in new builds is due to begin on January 1, 2027, and gas is still expected to serve some industry and back up electricity generation.

AI-assisted synthesis · Based on 2 outlets' reporting · Article text read from 1 of 2 outlets · 1 article captured only in partHow it's made

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2 outletsLatest reporting 3 min read
Coverage: Too few ratedL 0 · C 1 · R 0 · 1 unrated
Updat3 graphic: Australia
Updat3 graphic · Map data: Natural Earth Natural Earth (public domain)

What happened

Key facts

  • Households across Australia are disconnecting from gas networks or moving into homes without gas connections as electrification grows (per The Sydney Morning Herald, headtopics.com).
  • An Australian Energy Market Operator forecast projects east coast residential and small commercial gas demand will fall about 79 per cent over 20 years (per The Sydney Morning Herald).
  • French said the approach places the responsibility for covering the capital charge on consumers and shifts risk from gas-network investors to households and small businesses (per The Sydney Morning Herald).

The brief

Households across Australia are disconnecting from gas networks or moving into homes without gas connections as residential electrification grows. The Sydney Morning Herald reports that the trend is occurring alongside a forecast of a substantial decline in gas use across the east coast, though the forecast does not imply gas will disappear from the energy system.

An Australian Energy Market Operator forecast expects residential and small commercial gas demand on the east coast to fall by about 79 per cent over the next 20 years. The forecast links the expected decline to consumer-led electrification and the push to net zero. Gas is still expected to serve some industry and provide back-up electricity generation to support renewables.

The shift is reflected in individual household decisions. Bronwyn Batten said she regretted connecting her home in Thirroul, north of Wollongong, to the gas network when she built it in 2016. The Sydney Morning Herald describes her as part of a growing movement of households choosing to disconnect or moving into homes that were not connected to piped gas.

Government rules are also changing the options for new homes. In Victoria, a statewide ban on domestic gas in new builds is scheduled to take effect on January 1, 2027. A separate prohibition on gas hot-water systems is planned to follow, unless a change in government overturns it. About a dozen council areas in NSW have introduced similar bans, mostly in Sydney.

The account also raises a concern about who bears the cost of gas-network investment as customers leave the system. French argued that the approach puts the responsibility for covering the capital charge on consumers, shifting risk from investors in gas networks to households and small businesses.

That view points to a distributional question as demand changes: the forecast describes falling use, while the capital charge concern focuses on how network costs are covered. The figures and policies describe a transition in household gas use, not a complete end to gas demand.

The forecast covers residential and small commercial demand on the east coast; the account also expects continued gas use in some industry and as backup generation. The stated next policy milestones are Victoria’s new-build ban and the planned follow-on measure for gas hot-water systems, which could be affected by a change in government.

Why it matters

  • Households choosing to disconnect from gas face the practical cost question highlighted by French: who covers gas-network capital charges as the customer base changes.
  • The Australian Energy Market Operator forecast puts the expected decline at about 79 per cent for east coast residential and small commercial gas demand over 20 years.
  • Gas is still expected to support some industry and provide back-up electricity generation, so the forecast concerns a changing role for gas rather than its complete disappearance.

What to watch next

  • Whether Victoria’s domestic-gas ban for new builds takes effect on January 1, 2027.
  • Whether Victoria proceeds with the planned separate ban on gas hot-water systems, or a change in government overturns it.
  • How the expected fall in east coast residential and small commercial gas demand relates to the reported concern about gas-network capital charges.

How it's being covered

Coverage analysisShow details
2 source articles · 2 unique outlets
Outlet political mix: Too few rated· 1 Center · 1 unrated
Where the outlets are based: Asia 50% · Unknown 50%
Outlet political mix
Too few rated
Left
Center
Right
0 outlets
1 outlet
0 outlets
The marker shows coverage balance: each unique outlet counts once. 1 unrated outlet is not included.
Geography
Where the outlets covering this story are based.
2 unique outletsDominant coverage: Asia
Limited coverage
  • Coverage is currently limited to 2 outlets.
How we measure coverage

How outlets' accounts compare

Updat3 does not yet have enough full reports to compare how outlets framed this story.

Timeline

Developments from this story's sources, dated background we compiled and fact-checked, and our earlier coverage. Each row says which.
  1. In Victoria, the conversion of Melbourne and regional consumers from manufactured town gas to natural gas began in 1969 after the discovery of offshore gas in Bass Strait.
    Background · from our historical context
  2. In 1997, governments introduced the National Third Party Access Code for Natural Gas Pipeline Systems, requiring covered pipelines to provide access on regulated terms.
    Background · from our historical context
  3. The National Gas Law and National Gas Rules, which took effect in 2008, established the national framework for regulating covered gas pipelines.
    Background · from our historical context
  4. The National Gas Law replaced the code-based arrangement in 2008 and created a national legislative structure for gas-market regulation.
    Background · from our historical context
  5. The Australian Energy Market Operator began operating.
    Background · compiled and fact-checked by Updat3
  6. Victoria announced that new homes requiring planning permits would generally no longer be connected to the gas network.
    Background · compiled and fact-checked by Updat3

How we got here

The National Gas Law and National Gas Rules, which took effect in 2008, established the national framework for regulating covered gas pipelines. Under that framework, the Australian Energy Regulator assesses network revenue and tariffs, including the recovery of efficient costs from users.

In 1997, governments introduced the National Third Party Access Code for Natural Gas Pipeline Systems, requiring covered pipelines to provide access on regulated terms. The National Gas Law replaced the code-based arrangement in 2008 and created a national legislative structure for gas-market regulation.

Original sources

2 articles from 2 outlets

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