U.S. inflation hits 3.7% as economists expect it to stay elevated

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the consumer price index climbed to 3.7% for the year ending in September, a reading that economists told the Washington Examiner will keep inflation elevated.

The rise reflected notable increases in energy costs: gas prices jumped 9.1% in September while overall energy was more than 20% higher year-over-year, a combination the Examiner links in part to an oil-price spike tied to the war with Iran.

Economists cited by the Washington Examiner said that spike is among factors keeping consumer prices above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. Most of the 43 economists and forecasters surveyed by the Washington Examiner said they expect inflation to remain above 2% by the end of the year and do not anticipate a return to the Fed's 2% goal within the next year.

The same economists projected the jobs market will remain resilient over the coming year despite a slowdown in payroll growth: the economy added 29,000 payroll jobs in September, and the July and August employment reports were revised down by a combined 60,000. The Washington Examiner reported those employment revisions alongside the CPI release.

Household costs are being affected through mortgage rates and housing prices, the Examiner reported. According to Mortgage News Daily, cited in the article, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 7.45%, a level far above rates in 2021 when they were below 3%.

The Washington Examiner said elevated mortgage costs, together with persistent inflation, will keep homebuying expensive. The Examiner quoted economists who said they see inflation remaining elevated for the medium term and that core inflation may moderate but not enough to bring headline inflation to target within a year.

The article also highlighted a fiscal concern raised by an economist who described the federal deficit for fiscal 2026 as $2 trillion and said that deficit is large for a nation at peace and not in recession.

The Washington Examiner framed the CPI increase as the last such report before the 2026 midterm elections and noted that the economy ranked as the top voter concern heading into those elections.

The article tied the movement in consumer prices and energy costs to political and economic discussions but presented the economists' forecasts as the primary basis for its assessment that inflation will stay elevated while jobs remain resilient.

Fortune's headline coverage and a Bitget preview similarly flagged higher oil and gas prices as drivers of September inflation, corroborating the Examiner's emphasis on energy costs as a key component of the CPI rise. The reporting leaves the economists' forecasts and the higher borrowing costs for homebuyers as central determinants of near-term economic conditions.