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Nate Soares says AI could end humanity within a decade

Former Google engineer Nate Soares said he believes there is more than a 50% chance humanity will not last another decade. He said he has not contributed to his 401(k) for a decade.

AI-assisted synthesis · Based on 3 independent reports from 4 outlets · Article text read from 1 of 3 reportsHow it's made

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4 outlets3 regionsLatest reporting 3 min read
Coverage: Center OnlyL 0 · C 3 · R 0 · 1 unrated

What happened

Key facts

  • Nate Soares, a former Google engineer, warned that AI could end humanity within 10 years (per NDTV, twaslnews.com).
  • Soares said he has a 401(k) from his time at Google but has not contributed to it for a decade (per NDTV).
  • Asked whether he thought there was more than a 50% chance humans would not be around in 10 years, Soares said, “More than 50% that we don't have a decade at this point is how it looks to me.” (per NDTV).
  • Soares argued that superintelligent AI could develop goals its creators did not intend and that this could end human life (per NDTV).
  • inkl described Soares as an AI safety leader and said he had stopped saving for retirement because he feared technology could wipe out humanity within 10 years (per inkl.com, NDTV).

The brief

Former Google engineer Nate Soares says he believes humanity may not survive another decade, warning that uncontrolled superintelligent AI could develop goals that end human life. NDTV reported his estimate as a greater-than-50% chance that humans will not be around in 10 years. The claim is Soares’s assessment, not a prediction presented as a confirmed outcome. Soares’s remarks connect that assessment to his retirement saving. He said he has a 401(k) from his time working at Google but has not contributed to it for a decade. The inkl headline likewise describes him as having halted retirement savings because he fears technology could wipe out humanity within 10 years. In the account published by NDTV, Soares was asked whether he thought there was more than a 50% chance people would not be around in 10 years. He answered: “More than 50% that we don't have a decade at this point is how it looks to me.” His warning centers on superintelligent AI developing objectives its creators did not intend; he argued that such goals would end human life. Soares co-wrote “If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies” with MIRI cofounder Eliezer Yudkowsky. NDTV describes the book as arguing that superintelligent AI could develop goals that its creators never intended and that these goals would be fatal to humanity. The account does not identify a particular AI system or give a timetable more specific than the decade-scale warning. NDTV also reported a separate estimate from Geoffrey Hinton. Hinton said AI systems were advancing quickly and that most people were unaware of what was coming. He placed the chance of AI systems taking over at 10% to 20%, while explicitly describing that number as a “wild guess.”

Hinton said he agreed with Elon Musk on the possibility of AI takeover. His estimate is lower than Soares’s stated probability of humanity not surviving a decade, but the claims concern different outcomes: Soares spoke about human survival, while Hinton referred to AI systems taking over. NDTV also noted that Hinton received the 2024 Nobel Prize in physics alongside John Hopfield.

Why it matters

  • Soares’s stated concern is that superintelligent AI could develop goals its creators did not intend, with human survival as the specific stake he identifies.
  • Soares linked his risk assessment to a personal financial choice: he said he has not contributed to his 401(k) for a decade.
  • Hinton offered a separate 10% to 20% estimate for AI takeover and called it a “wild guess,” illustrating the uncertainty attached to the claims.

What to watch next

  • Whether Soares gives further detail about the basis for his greater-than-50% estimate.
  • Whether Hinton provides more explanation for his 10% to 20% estimate, which he called a “wild guess.”
  • Whether Soares or Hinton specifies what they mean by AI systems taking over or developing unintended goals.

How it's being covered

Coverage analysisShow details
4 source articles · 4 unique outlets · 3 distinct reports
Outlet political mix: Center Only· 3 Center · 1 unrated
Where the outlets are based: US/Canada 25% · Europe 25% · Other 50%
Outlet political mix
Center Only
Left
Center
Right
0 outlets
3 outlets
0 outlets
The marker shows coverage balance: each unique outlet counts once. 1 unrated outlet is not included.
Geography
Where the outlets covering this story are based.
4 unique outletsDominant coverage: US/Canada
Coverage imbalance
  • Coverage is currently concentrated among Center-rated outlets (3 of 3 rated sources); comparatively few Left or Right-rated outlets have published on the event.
How we measure coverage

How outlets' accounts compare

Updat3 does not yet have enough full reports to compare how outlets framed this story.

Timeline

Developments from this story's sources, dated background we compiled and fact-checked, and our earlier coverage. Each row says which.
  1. In 1950, mathematician Alan Turing’s paper “Computing Machinery and Intelligence” examined whether machines could think.
    Background · from our historical context
  2. The organization that became the Machine Intelligence Research Institute was founded as the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence.
    Background · compiled and fact-checked by Updat3
  3. In 2014, philosopher Nick Bostrom’s book *Superintelligence* brought wider attention to the possibility that a highly capable system could pursue goals that conflict with human interests.
    Background · from our historical context
  4. Nate Soares became executive director of the Machine Intelligence Research Institute.
    Background · compiled and fact-checked by Updat3
  5. In March 2023, Soares’s MIRI colleague Eliezer Yudkowsky argued in *Time* that pausing AI development would not be enough to address the risks of advanced systems.
    Background · from our historical context

How we got here

Before the warning, Nate Soares had spent years working on the problem of aligning advanced AI systems with human intentions. on AI safety, in 2015; MIRI’s work helped place concerns about controlling more capable future systems at the center of his career. In 1950, mathematician Alan Turing’s paper “Computing Machinery and Intelligence” examined whether machines could think.

The 1956 Dartmouth workshop, organized by John McCarthy and other researchers, helped establish artificial intelligence as a research field. In 2014, philosopher Nick Bostrom’s book *Superintelligence* brought wider attention to the possibility that a highly capable system could pursue goals that conflict with human interests.

Original sources

1 of 4 articles · Europe · Show all

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