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FAO economist warns supply pressures could raise food inflation globally

FAO chief economist Máximo Torero warned that supply pressures could intensify food inflation late in 2026 and keep it elevated into 2027. The FAO’s food-price index rose 1.5% in September, with increases in cereals, sugar and vegetable oils.

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What happened

Key facts

  • Máximo Torero, the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization’s chief economist, warned that food inflation could intensify late in 2026 and persist into 2027.
  • The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the U.S. food index was unchanged in September; grocery prices fell 0.1%, while food away from home rose 0.2%.
  • Over the year, U.S. grocery prices rose 1.8%, food-service prices increased 3.5% and the combined food index climbed 2.5%.
  • The FAO said cereals, sugar and vegetable oils rose in its index, while meat prices fell and dairy prices were nearly unchanged.
  • U.S. consumer prices increased 0.6% in September, with energy prices up 5.2% for the month.

The brief

Máximo Torero, the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization’s chief economist, warned that food inflation could intensify late in 2026 and continue into 2027. The warning identifies supply pressures as a concern: shipping disruptions, costly agricultural inputs and El Niño weather could weigh on food supplies.

Reuters’ headline also describes supply shocks accumulating as food inflation is expected to intensify. The FAO’s October 2 release showed different price movements among food categories. Cereals, sugar and vegetable oils increased, while meat prices fell and dairy prices were nearly unchanged.

The agency’s food-price index rose 1.5% in September, according to the account published by The FINANCIAL. The U.S. figures offered a separate measure of food costs. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the food index was unchanged in September. Within that measure, grocery prices fell 0.1%, while food away from home rose 0.2%.

Compared with a year earlier, U.S. grocery prices were up 1.8%, food-service prices had risen 3.5%, and the combined food index had increased 2.5%. The monthly movement therefore varied between grocery purchases and meals eaten away from home, while the annual figures showed increases across all three measures. The account also points to agricultural and weather indicators.

In a separate October 2 cereal brief, the FAO forecast a 2026 harvest of 2.979 billion metric tons. The U.S. Climate Prediction Center said in an October 8 advisory that El Niño continued to strengthen.

Torero’s warning extends into 2027, but the reported figures distinguish the forecast from observed price data: the FAO release describes category changes, and the U.S. statistics record September food costs. The account does not quantify how much each cited supply pressure would contribute to food inflation.

Why it matters

  • Torero’s warning connects shipping disruptions, agricultural-input costs and El Niño weather with possible pressure on food supplies and inflation into 2027.
  • In the United States, grocery prices fell 0.1% in September while food away from home rose 0.2%, showing different monthly movements for household food purchases and meals out.
  • Annual U.S. increases were 1.8% for groceries, 3.5% for food service and 2.5% for the combined food index.

What to watch next

  • Whether the FAO’s forecast 2026 cereal harvest of 2.979 billion metric tons is reflected in later harvest reporting.
  • Whether the U.S. Climate Prediction Center reports further changes after its October 8 advisory said El Niño was strengthening.
  • Whether subsequent food-price figures show increases in cereals, sugar and vegetable oils continuing alongside the reported decline in meat prices.

How it's being covered

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2 source articles · 2 unique outlets
Outlet political mix: Too few rated· 1 Center · 1 unrated
Where the outlets are based: Global 50% · Unknown 50%
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2 unique outletsDominant coverage: Global
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How we measure coverage

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How outlets' accounts compare

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Timeline

Developments from this story's sources, dated background we compiled and fact-checked, and our earlier coverage. Each row says which.
  1. The Bureau of Labor Statistics began publishing the Consumer Price Index.
    Background · compiled and fact-checked by Updat3
  2. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations was founded.
    Background · compiled and fact-checked by Updat3
  3. The WTO Agreement on Agriculture entered into force, setting rules for agricultural trade, including export restrictions.
    Background · compiled and fact-checked by Updat3
  4. The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted food transport and labor supply.
    Background · compiled and fact-checked by Updat3
  5. In 2022, many governments also restricted food exports; the World Bank recorded restrictions by 22 countries at the peak of the global food-price crisis.
    Background · from our historical context
  6. The FAO Food Price Index reached a record high of 159.7.
    Background · compiled and fact-checked by Updat3

How we got here

In 2022, many governments also restricted food exports; the World Bank recorded restrictions by 22 countries at the peak of the global food-price crisis. The World Trade Organization’s 1995 Agreement on Agriculture permits some export restrictions but requires members to notify the WTO and consider effects on importing countries.

The 2020 COVID-19 pandemic had already exposed vulnerabilities in food transport and labor supply, while higher energy and fertilizer costs raised farm and shipping expenses.

Original sources

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