Skip to content
Sign in
Politics · North America

Siena poll puts Hochul 14 points ahead of Blakeman

A Siena University poll of likely voters puts New York Gov. Kathy Hochul ahead of Republican Bruce Blakeman, 54% to 40%. Pollster Steven Greenberg said Hochul’s lead had widened from the previous month’s survey, while the new poll showed her leading among independents.

AI-assisted synthesis · Based on 5 outlets' reporting · Article text read from 1 of 5 outletsHow it's made

View timeline · 7 entries
5 outletsLatest reporting 3 min read
Coverage: MixedL 0 · C 3 · R 2
File photo
Photo: Metropolitan Transportation Authority / Wikimedia Commons (CC BY 4.0)

What happened

Key facts

  • A Siena University poll showed New York Gov. Kathy Hochul leading Republican Bruce Blakeman in the New York governor’s race (per New York Post, newsday.com, Fox News).
  • Hochul’s lead increased from 9 points in the prior month’s Siena poll, which recorded her at 50% and Blakeman at 41% (per New York Post).
  • Siena pollster Steven Greenberg said the gap was growing rather than narrowing and that Blakeman had little time to close it (per New York Post).
  • Greenberg said the candidates were running virtually evenly upstate and in the downstate suburbs, while Hochul led by 11 points among independent voters (per New York Post).
  • Hochul led 67% to 23% among likely voters in New York City, according to the poll (per New York Post).
  • The poll found that 66% of voters said the United States was heading in the wrong direction, while 49% said New York was on the wrong track (per New York Post).
  • Asked who would make New York more affordable, 30% chose Hochul, 27% chose Blakeman, and 35% said neither (per New York Post).

The brief

A Siena University poll puts New York Gov. Kathy Hochul ahead of Republican Bruce Blakeman by 54% to 40% among likely voters, a 14-point margin in the governor’s race. The New York Post reported the results and said the survey was conducted from Oct. 19 to 22 with 807 likely voters. WGRZ and Yahoo also headlined the 54%-40% result, while Fox News described Hochul as adding to her lead and quoted the phrase “running out of time.”

The Post said Hochul’s advantage had grown from the previous month’s Siena poll, which recorded her at 50% and Blakeman at 41%, a 9-point margin. Siena pollster Steven Greenberg characterized the trend as a widening gap rather than a narrowing one, and said Blakeman had little time to close it. Greenberg’s remarks frame the poll as a snapshot of the contest late in the campaign; the article describes it as the final pre-election Siena poll. The statewide result masks differences among voter groups and regions described by Greenberg. He said the candidates were running virtually evenly upstate and in the downstate suburbs, while Hochul held an 11-point advantage among independents. The poll also put Hochul ahead of Blakeman among likely New York City voters, 67% to 23%. The Post reported that 66% of respondents said the United States was heading in the wrong direction. By comparison, 49% said New York was on the wrong track. On affordability, respondents were divided: 30% said Hochul would make New York more affordable, 27% chose Blakeman, and 35% said neither candidate would. Greenberg’s assessment focused on the size and direction of the margin, while the poll’s subgroup figures show a closer contest in the upstate and downstate suburban areas he identified. The report does not provide separate candidate percentages for those two areas beyond his description that the race was virtually even there. The figures for independents and New York City voters, by contrast, include reported margins or vote shares. The results describe likely voters’ preferences and views in the survey period. The Post’s account places the poll in the final days before Election Day and presents Greenberg’s view that the remaining time was limited for Blakeman to narrow the gap. The reported affordability responses and views of the country and state provide additional measures of voter sentiment, alongside the candidates’ statewide standing.

Why it matters

  • The poll’s 54%-40% result measures likely voters’ support for Hochul and Blakeman, a 14-point statewide gap.
  • Independent voters are a distinct measure in the survey: Greenberg said Hochul led that group by 11 points.
  • Affordability views were divided: 30% chose Hochul, 27% Blakeman, and 35% neither.

What to watch next

  • Whether the reported statewide 14-point margin is reflected in the governor’s race outcome.
  • Whether Hochul’s reported 11-point advantage among independent voters is reflected in the result.
  • Whether voters’ divided affordability responses—30% for Hochul, 27% for Blakeman, and 35% for neither—are reflected in the outcome.

How it's being covered

Coverage analysisShow details
5 source articles · 5 unique outlets
Outlet political mix: Mixed· 3 Center · 2 Right
Where the outlets are based: US/Canada 100%
Outlet political mix
Mixed
Left
Center
Right
0 outlets
3 outlets
2 outlets
The marker shows coverage balance: each unique outlet counts once.
Geography
Where the outlets covering this story are based.
5 unique outletsDominant coverage: US/Canada
Coverage imbalance
  • Coverage is currently concentrated among outlets based in US/Canada (5 of 5 geographically-identified sources).
How we measure coverage

How outlets' accounts compare

Updat3 does not yet have enough full reports to compare how outlets framed this story.

Timeline

Developments from this story's sources, dated background we compiled and fact-checked, and our earlier coverage. Each row says which.
  1. In 2011, she had won a special election for New York’s 26th Congressional District, becoming the first Democrat in decades to represent that district.
    Background · from our historical context
  2. Hochul’s path to the governorship began with her election as lieutenant governor in 2014, on a ticket headed by Cuomo.
    Background · from our historical context
  3. Andrew Cuomo's resignation took effect, and Kathy Hochul became New York governor.
    Background · compiled and fact-checked by Updat3
  4. Bruce Blakeman was elected Nassau County executive.
    Background · compiled and fact-checked by Updat3
  5. Kathy Hochul was elected to a full term as New York governor.
    Background · compiled and fact-checked by Updat3
  6. A Siena poll put Kathy Hochul at 50% and Bruce Blakeman at 41% among likely voters.
    Background · compiled and fact-checked by Updat3
  7. Kathy Hochul said during a debate with Bruce Blakeman that she would not raise New York’s state income taxes.
    Background · compiled and fact-checked by Updat3

How we got here

The immediate polling precedent was the prior month’s Siena survey, which put Kathy Hochul at 50% and Bruce Blakeman at 41%. That result provided a benchmark for the campaign’s movement before the final survey; Siena pollster Steven Greenberg described the earlier gap as narrower.

The contest followed New York’s 2022 gubernatorial election, in which Hochul defeated Republican Lee Zeldin by about six percentage points. Hochul had become governor on August 24, 2021, after Andrew Cuomo resigned amid investigations into allegations of sexual harassment; she had served as lieutenant governor since 2015. The 2022 result gave Hochul her first full term.

Original sources

5 articles from 5 outlets · US/Canada · Show all

Every story links to the reporting it was built from. How we choose sources

Spotted a factual error, a broken link or a misleading summary? Tell us.