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Climate & Environment · Asia

Indonesia fires burn 1.9 million hectares as haze readings exceed 2015

Drought linked to a powerful El Niño and climate change preceded fires that burned 1.9 million hectares in Indonesia from January to September. Fire hotspot detections were 67 per cent above the same period in 2019 as of October 18.

AI-assisted synthesis · Based on 4 outlets' reporting · Article text read from 2 of 4 outletsHow it's made

View timeline · 11 entries
4 outlets2 regionsLatest reporting 3 min readNo new reporting in 3 days
Coverage: Center OnlyL 0 · C 3 · R 0 · 1 unrated
Updat3 graphic: Indonesia
Updat3 graphic · Map data: Natural Earth Natural Earth (public domain)

What happened

Key facts

  • The burned area was 38 per cent higher than during the same period in 2019, which had been Indonesia’s worst year for fires (per The Sydney Morning Herald).
  • Singapore’s National Environment Agency reported 15 consecutive days of unhealthy air readings under the local PSI system, compared with eight days in 2015 (per neweralive.na).
  • NEA deputy director Jason Evan Tan told AFP that the consecutive run of unhealthy air readings had surpassed the 2015 record (per neweralive.na).
  • Associate Professor Andrea Taschetto of the University of NSW said El Nino events are linked to droughts and fires in Indonesia (per The Sydney Morning Herald).

The brief

Fires burned more than 1.9 million hectares across Indonesia between January and the end of September, according to satellite imagery analysis by Nusantara Atlas. The scale exceeds the burned area recorded during the same period of 2019, Indonesia’s previous worst fire year, while satellite hotspot detections were also substantially higher than in that comparison period.

The two accounts emphasize different measures of the crisis. The Sydney Morning Herald reports the burned-area estimate and compares it with 2019, while neweralive.na focuses on the fires’ connection to a regional haze crisis and Singapore’s air-quality readings.

France 24 and inkl.com also reported nearly 2 million hectares burned, corroborating the broad scale in their headlines. Nusantara Atlas used peer-reviewed methodology to analyse satellite imagery. The estimate may be conservative because smoke can obscure whether land has burned.

The monitor also says it excludes individual burn scars smaller than 6.25 hectares and gives priority to avoiding false detections, a methodological choice that can leave some burned area outside its count. The haze’s measured effect is apparent in Singapore.

The country’s National Environment Agency reported 15 consecutive days of unhealthy air under its PSI system, compared with eight days in 2015. NEA deputy director Jason Evan Tan told AFP that the latest run had exceeded the 2015 mark. The figures describe air-quality readings, rather than a count of people affected or a measure of health outcomes.

El Nino-linked drought is identified as part of the conditions associated with the fires. Associate Professor Andrea Taschetto of the University of NSW said El Nino events are linked to droughts and fires in Indonesia. The coverage also links the current drought to climate change, but does not quantify how much either factor contributed to the burned area.

The Bureau of Meteorology says models expect El Nino to peak around November or December and continue into autumn 2027. That forecast puts the current fires within a longer period of dry conditions, although the sources do not provide a forecast for Indonesia’s burned area or Singapore’s air readings.

The reported satellite detections and haze measurements therefore offer distinct indicators: one tracks fire activity, while the other records sustained unhealthy air in Singapore.

Why it matters

  • Indonesia’s burned area exceeded 1.9 million hectares, and the estimate may undercount land because smoke can hide burn evidence and the monitor excludes scars below 6.25 hectares.
  • Singapore residents face a sustained period of unhealthy air readings: the National Environment Agency counted 15 consecutive days under its PSI system, compared with eight in 2015.
  • The fire extent was 38 per cent above the same period in 2019, while hotspot detections were 67 per cent higher as of October 18, indicating greater fire extent and activity than in that comparison.
  • The Bureau of Meteorology’s forecast of El Nino conditions continuing into autumn 2027 means drought-linked fire conditions may remain relevant beyond the current burn-area reporting period.

What to watch next

  • Whether Nusantara Atlas’s satellite analysis records further burned area as the fire season continues.
  • Whether Singapore’s National Environment Agency records additional consecutive days of unhealthy PSI readings.
  • Whether satellite hotspot detections remain above the same-period 2019 comparison.
  • Whether El Nino peaks around November or December, as the Bureau of Meteorology says models project, and persists into autumn 2027.

How it's being covered

Coverage analysisShow details
4 source articles · 4 unique outlets
Outlet political mix: Center Only· 3 Center · 1 unrated
Where the outlets are based: Europe 50% · Asia 25% · Other 25%
Outlet political mix
Center Only
Left
Center
Right
0 outlets
3 outlets
0 outlets
The marker shows coverage balance: each unique outlet counts once. 1 unrated outlet is not included.
Geography
Where the outlets covering this story are based.
4 unique outletsDominant coverage: Europe
Coverage imbalance
  • Coverage is currently concentrated among Center-rated outlets (3 of 3 rated sources); comparatively few Left or Right-rated outlets have published on the event.
How we measure coverage

How outlets' accounts compare

1 framing difference · 2 uncorroborated claims · 2 information gaps
The reports repeat the same account with different emphasis; its central claims are not independently confirmed in the reporting Updat3 read.Compared across 2 reports whose article text Updat3 read; 2 other outlets were checked by headline only.
Framing / emphasis differences
Sources emphasise different angles, actors or consequences of the same reporting.
  • The Sydney Morning Herald emphasizes the 1.9 million-hectare estimate, its comparison with 2019, and satellite hotspot detections; neweralive.na foregrounds the regional haze crisis and Singapore’s consecutive unhealthy-air readings.
Updat3: These are differences of emphasis, not disputes about what is reported. They do not show that the reported claims are true.
One-sided or uncorroborated claims
Claims that come from one party or one source family and are not independently corroborated.
  • Associate Professor Andrea Taschetto of the University of NSW said El Nino events are linked to droughts and fires in Indonesia.
  • NEA deputy director Jason Evan Tan told AFP that Singapore’s consecutive run of unhealthy air readings had surpassed the 2015 mark.
Updat3: Not independently corroborated yet — treat as a claim, not an established fact.
Not established by the reporting
Information the available reporting does not contain or confirm. This is a gap, not a disagreement.
  • The sources do not provide health-outcome data for people exposed to the unhealthy air readings.
  • The sources do not quantify the separate contributions of El Nino-linked drought and climate change to the fires.
Updat3: Updat3 cannot conclude anything about this from the current sources.

Timeline

Developments from this story's sources, dated background we compiled and fact-checked, and our earlier coverage. Each row says which.
  1. A severe El Niño developed in the Pacific.
    Background · compiled and fact-checked by Updat3
  2. ASEAN signed the Agreement on Transboundary Haze Pollution on 10 June 2002, committing member states to cooperate on preventing and monitoring haze from land and forest fires.
    Background · from our historical context
  3. The Agreement on Transboundary Haze Pollution entered into force.
    Background · compiled and fact-checked by Updat3
  4. Indonesia issued Presidential Instruction No. 10, imposing a moratorium on new permits for certain forest and peatland uses.
    Background · compiled and fact-checked by Updat3
  5. Indonesia ratified the Agreement on Transboundary Haze Pollution, becoming its last ASEAN member to do so.
    Background · compiled and fact-checked by Updat3
  6. In 2015, Indonesia experienced a strong El Niño and drought conditions; researchers linked those conditions to increased fire risk, while land management also shaped where fires occurred and how they spread.
    Background · from our historical context
  7. A strong El Niño developed, bringing drought and crop losses to parts of Asia and Africa.
    Background · compiled and fact-checked by Updat3
  8. Fires in Indonesia caused severe regional haze.
    Background · compiled and fact-checked by Updat3
  9. The 2015 crisis also prompted regional diplomatic attention: at a special ASEAN ministerial meeting in October 2015, member states discussed measures to address the haze.
    Background · from our historical context
  10. Indonesia experienced its worst year for fires, according to The Sydney Morning Herald.
    Background · compiled and fact-checked by Updat3
  11. President Joko Widodo made Indonesia’s moratorium on new permits for certain forest and peatland uses permanent.
    Background · compiled and fact-checked by Updat3

How we got here

The closest precedents were Indonesia’s 2019 fires, described by *The Sydney Morning Herald* as the country’s worst fire year, and the 2015 fire season, which set the earlier benchmark for unhealthy air readings in Singapore. Both episodes showed how fires in Indonesia could affect neighboring countries through transboundary haze.

The 2015 crisis also prompted regional diplomatic attention: at a special ASEAN ministerial meeting in October 2015, member states discussed measures to address the haze. ASEAN signed the Agreement on Transboundary Haze Pollution on 10 June 2002, committing member states to cooperate on preventing and monitoring haze from land and forest fires.

Original sources

1 of 4 articles · Asia · Show all

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