Politics · Middle East

Israeli TV projections leave both election blocs short of a majority

Israeli television networks projected no clear parliamentary majority for either bloc, with Channel 12 giving Netanyahu’s bloc a narrow lead. Gadi Eisenkot called for replacing Netanyahu’s government, leaving the next government’s formation uncertain.

AI-assisted synthesis · Based on 6 outlets' reporting · Article text read from 1 of 6 outlets · 1 article captured only in partHow it's made

View timeline · 8 entries

6 outlets3 regionsLatest reporting Oct 28, 3:50 AM UTC3 min readNo new reporting in 4 days

Coverage: Mostly CenterL 1 · C 5 · R 0

Updat3 graphic · Map data: Natural Earth Natural Earth (public domain)

What happened

Key facts

The election is Israel’s first since the Hamas-led October 7, 2023, attacks and the subsequent war in Gaza.
Channel 12 projected Netanyahu’s Likud-led bloc at 52 seats and the opposing bloc at 49.
Gadi Eisenkot said he would act to replace the Netanyahu government and form a Zionist government of national mobilisation.
Eisenkot described Netanyahu as a caretaker prime minister without a mandate or the public’s trust, and urged the security establishment to stand firm.

The brief

Channel 12 projected Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud-led bloc at 52 seats and the opposing bloc at 49, leaving both below the 61 seats needed for a majority in the 120-member Knesset. The Times of India reported that the television projections placed Netanyahu’s bloc narrowly ahead, while Gadi Eisenkot called for a change of government.

The seat estimates are projections, not a final result. Eisenkot said he would work to replace Netanyahu’s government and form what he described as a Zionist government of national mobilisation. He characterized Netanyahu as a caretaker prime minister who lacked a mandate and the public’s trust, and called on the security establishment to stand firm.

Those statements set out Eisenkot’s position; the account does not present them as an independently established assessment of Netanyahu’s standing. The Times of India described the election as Israel’s first since the Hamas-led October 7, 2023, attacks and the subsequent war in Gaza.

Its account identifies that sequence as context for the vote, but does not establish that it caused the projections or voters’ choices. AP News’s headline also frames the ballot as a decision on whether to remove Netanyahu after three years of war, while Middle East Eye’s headline presents Eisenkot as a challenger Netanyahu was seeking to fend off.

Turnout reached 77.7%, which Israel’s Central Elections Committee said was the highest since 1999. That figure measures participation; it does not by itself show how voters divided between the blocs or what government will be formed. The Times of Israel’s headline describes the polling as showing deadlock and says betting markets strongly favored Eisenkot to replace Netanyahu.

That headline reports a market view, not an election result or a seat projection. The supplied Times of India account gives Channel 12’s 52-to-49 estimate and does not state a separate market figure. The immediate political question raised by these projections is whether Eisenkot’s stated effort to replace Netanyahu can produce a government with parliamentary support.

The account does not provide a final seat count or identify the eventual governing arrangement. The projections leave Netanyahu’s bloc short of the stated majority threshold even though Channel 12 placed it ahead of the opposing bloc.

Why it matters

With neither projected bloc near the 61 seats needed to govern, coalition negotiations or a broader unity arrangement could determine who leads Israel and whether Netanyahu’s government continues. That uncertainty affects Israelis and the country’s wartime decision-making, including the government’s ability to sustain policy and secure parliamentary support for major military and civilian measures.

What to watch next

Whether the final seat count confirms or changes Channel 12’s projection of 52 seats for Netanyahu’s bloc and 49 for the opposing bloc.
Whether Gadi Eisenkot acts on his stated plan to replace Netanyahu’s government and form a Zionist government of national mobilisation.
Whether either bloc reaches the 61 seats required for a Knesset majority.

How it's being covered

Coverage analysisShow details

6 source articles · 6 unique outlets

Outlet political mix: Mostly Center· 1 Left · 5 Center

Where the outlets are based: Middle East 33% · Global 33% · Other 34%

Outlet political mix

Mostly Center

Left

Center

Right

1 outlet

5 outlets

0 outlets

The marker shows coverage balance: each unique outlet counts once.

Geography

Where the outlets covering this story are based.

6 unique outletsDominant coverage: Middle East

All6 US/CA1 · 17%M.E.2 · 33%Asia1 · 17%Global2 · 33%

Coverage imbalance

Coverage is currently concentrated among Center-rated outlets (5 of 6 rated sources); comparatively few Right-rated outlets have published on the event.

How we measure coverage

2 sources are from a wire service (AP, Reuters, AFP or Bloomberg), whose reporting other outlets often republish.

How outlets' accounts compare

Updat3 does not yet have enough full reports to compare how outlets framed this story.

Timeline

Developments from this story's sources, dated background we compiled and fact-checked, and our earlier coverage. Each row says which.

Aug 2022
Benny Gantz, Gideon Sa'ar and Gadi Eisenkot formed the National Unity alliance.
Background · compiled and fact-checked by Updat3
Nov 1, 2022
Israel held a Knesset election in which Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc won a majority.
Background · compiled and fact-checked by Updat3
Dec 29, 2022
Benjamin Netanyahu returned to office as prime minister after his bloc won a majority in the Knesset election.
Background · compiled and fact-checked by Updat3
Jan 2023
Benjamin Netanyahu’s government proposed changes to Israel’s judicial system.
Background · compiled and fact-checked by Updat3
Jul 24, 2023
The Knesset passed a law limiting courts’ use of the reasonableness standard.
Background · compiled and fact-checked by Updat3
Oct 7, 2023
Hamas-led gunmen attacked Israel on October 7, 2023, killing about 1,200 people and taking about 250 hostages, according to Israeli figures.
Background · from our historical context
Jan 1, 2024
The Supreme Court struck down that law on January 1, 2024.
Background · from our historical context
Jun 9, 2024
Benny Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot left Israel’s emergency government.
Background · compiled and fact-checked by Updat3

How we got here

Israel’s political contest entered the 2026 election after Benjamin Netanyahu returned to office on December 29, 2022, at the head of a coalition of Likud and religious and nationalist parties.

The coalition’s proposed judicial overhaul, introduced in January 2023, prompted large demonstrations; on July 24, 2023, the Knesset passed a law limiting courts’ use of the “reasonableness” standard. The Supreme Court struck down that law on January 1, 2024.