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Finance & Markets · Asia Pacific

Kazakhstan’s National Bank lowers base rate as inflation reaches 9.3%

Kazakhstan’s National Bank lowered its base rate to 15.75%, with the Monetary Policy Committee setting a corridor one percentage point above and below that rate. Annual inflation reached 9.3% in September, its 12th consecutive monthly decline, while 12-month inflation expectations fell to 11.8%.

AI-assisted synthesis · Based on 4 outlets' reporting · Article text read from 1 of 4 outletsHow it's made

View timeline · 6 entries
4 outletsLatest reporting 3 min read
Coverage: Mostly RightL 0 · C 1 · R 3
Updat3 graphic: Kazakhstan
Updat3 graphic

What happened

Key facts

  • Annual inflation fell to 9.3% in September, its 12th consecutive monthly decline, according to National Bank Governor Timur Suleimenov.
  • Inflation expectations for the next 12 months fell to 11.8% in September from 12.1% in August.
  • Fixed-capital investment rose 7% in January-September, while non-resource investment excluding budget funds increased 25%.

The brief

Kazakhstan’s National Bank lowered its base rate to 15.75%, while annual inflation stood at 9.3% in September. The National Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee announced the decision on Oct. 23 and set a corridor extending one percentage point above and below the base rate.

The National Bank said the reduction followed continued easing in annual inflation and inflation expectations. National Bank Governor Timur Suleimenov said September marked the 12th consecutive monthly decline in annual inflation. He attributed that trend to moderately tight monetary policy and favorable exchange-rate dynamics.

Inflation expectations for the next 12 months also eased, falling to 11.8% in September from 12.1% in August. Food prices contributed to the decline: food inflation dropped to 8.5% from 9.5%. Suleimenov pointed to lower fruit and vegetable prices and slower increases in meat prices. Non-food inflation fell to 11% from 11.4%, partly as fuel and lubricant prices rose more slowly.

After seasonal adjustment, the measure slowed to 0.7% from 0.9%. The rate decision sits alongside mixed indicators in the National Bank’s account. Fixed-capital investment grew 7% in January-September, while non-resource investment excluding budget funds increased 25%.

The bank also referred to monetary-policy decisions abroad, saying the European Central Bank raised rates for the second time that year and the United States Federal Reserve raised rates for the first time since 2023. The National Bank warned that annual inflation could pick up somewhat toward the end of 2026.

It linked that possibility to a base effect associated with regulated tariffs. The warning identifies a factor the bank says could influence the annual measure; it does not provide a forecast figure for inflation at year-end.

The report frames the rate reduction around the recent inflation decline and the easing of expectations, while also noting the bank’s caution about a possible late-year increase. Its figures describe the September inflation measure and investment activity through January-September; the committee’s decision sets the base rate and its surrounding corridor.

Why it matters

  • Kazakh households face food inflation of 8.5%, down from 9.5%, and non-food inflation of 11%, down from 11.4%; those categories show where price growth eased.
  • The 11.8% measure of 12-month inflation expectations, compared with 12.1% in August, is one of the indicators the National Bank cited as it lowered the rate.
  • The bank’s warning that regulated-tariff base effects could lift annual inflation toward the end of 2026 puts a caveat alongside September’s 9.3% annual reading.

What to watch next

  • Whether the National Bank changes its base rate or its corridor around the 15.75% rate at a later committee decision.
  • Whether annual inflation rises toward the end of 2026, as the National Bank said could happen because of regulated-tariff base effects.
  • Whether the next reported inflation expectations measure continues the decline from 12.1% in August to 11.8% in September.

How it's being covered

Coverage analysisShow details
4 source articles · 4 unique outlets
Outlet political mix: Mostly Right· 1 Center · 3 Right
Where the outlets are based: Asia 50% · Unknown 50%
Outlet political mix
Mostly Right
Left
Center
Right
0 outlets
1 outlet
3 outlets
The marker shows coverage balance: each unique outlet counts once.
Geography
Where the outlets covering this story are based.
4 unique outletsDominant coverage: Asia
Coverage imbalance
  • Coverage is currently concentrated among Right-rated outlets (3 of 4 rated sources); comparatively few Left-rated outlets have published on the event.
How we measure coverage

How outlets' accounts compare

Updat3 does not yet have enough full reports to compare how outlets framed this story.

Timeline

Developments from this story's sources, dated background we compiled and fact-checked, and our earlier coverage. Each row says which.
  1. Kazakhstan established the National Bank of Kazakhstan.
    Background · compiled and fact-checked by Updat3
  2. Kazakhstan adopted a floating tenge and inflation targeting, with the National Bank’s base rate as its main monetary-policy signal.
    Background · compiled and fact-checked by Updat3
  3. The National Bank raised the base rate to 16% in September 2015 to support the tenge and contain inflation.
    Background · from our historical context
  4. The framework was tested again after Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, when disrupted trade and higher global commodity prices fed domestic price pressures.
    Background · from our historical context
  5. Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
    Background · compiled and fact-checked by Updat3
  6. In October 2022, Kazakhstan’s annual inflation reached 21.8%, according to the National Bank, as rising food and fuel costs added to household expenses.
    Background · from our historical context

How we got here

The National Bank’s October 2026 decision followed a prolonged easing in price growth: Governor Timur Suleimenov said annual inflation had declined for 12 consecutive months by September. In October 2022, Kazakhstan’s annual inflation reached 21.8%, according to the National Bank, as rising food and fuel costs added to household expenses.

On August 20 of that year, Kazakhstan moved to a floating exchange rate for the tenge and adopted inflation targeting; the National Bank introduced its base rate as the principal signal of monetary policy. The change followed pressure on the currency after Russia’s move to a floating ruble and falling oil prices.

Original sources

4 articles from 4 outlets

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