ECLAC sees Latin American goods exports rising 20% in 2026

ECLAC projects that Latin American and Caribbean goods exports will grow 20% in value in 2026, with higher prices and larger export volumes both contributing. The projection, reported in the commission’s International Trade Outlook, would mark the region’s strongest export growth since the post-pandemic rebound in 2021, UPI reported.

UPI put the projected total at nearly $1.9 trillion and said the region’s two largest economies would account for more than $1.24 trillion. The forecast divides the increase into an 11% rise in prices and a 9% gain in volumes, a breakdown also reported by the Buenos Aires Herald and Latin Times.

That combination matters: the projected growth reflects not just higher commodity prices but also an expected expansion in the amount of goods shipped. The Buenos Aires Herald describes the expected increase in export value as led by higher mineral and metal prices. First-half figures offer a measure of the trade expansion, although the outlets report different export measures.

The Buenos Aires Herald said goods exports rose 20% year over year in the first half of 2026, while imports increased 14%, citing ECLAC. Latin Times reported an 18% increase in the combined value of goods and services exports over the same period and said imports rose 13%, citing CEPAL.

The goods-only and combined goods-and-services export figures are not the same measure; the import figures are different values for the same period and regional trade flow. Commodity prices feature prominently in the outlook. ECLAC projects mineral and metal prices will rise 31.6%, with copper, gold, silver and tin leading.

Latin Times separately reported that gold prices rose about 64% and copper about 27% year over year through April 2026. Those figures describe past price movements through April, not the commission’s full-year projection for the broader mineral-and-metal category. The export forecast also points to changing destination markets.

The Buenos Aires Herald reported that ECLAC expects exports to Asia excluding China to increase 32% in value, the strongest growth among the destinations it cited. Latin Times said trade flows from Latin America to South Asian countries and ASEAN members expanded 82% between 2019 and 2024, attributing that figure to a bank.

That historical corridor measure is distinct from the forecast for exports to Asia excluding China. The estimates cover a year in which ECLAC said global trade volumes expanded by more than 5% in the first half of 2026, with demand for electronic components associated with AI investment contributing substantially, according to the Buenos Aires Herald.

The same outlet noted geopolitical uncertainty linked to the Middle East war and the China-U.S. trade war, while reporting continued growth in world trade. Those conditions provide context for the forecast, but ECLAC’s stated drivers in these accounts are export prices and volumes. Forecasts for individual sectors and countries point to uneven gains.

Dataportuaria reported ECLAC’s projection of 11% growth in services exports and a 16% increase for Ecuador. The Buenos Aires Herald said intraregional exports are expected to grow by 8%, below the overall goods-export projection. Together, the figures suggest the headline regional forecast will not describe every country, sector or trade route equally.