Johnson urges Republicans to disregard polls as he campaigns for House seats

House Speaker Mike Johnson urged Republicans to disregard polling, saying that Republican voters’ reluctance to participate is making surveys less representative of the electorate. He also said the party does not pay attention to polls and argued that pollsters are reaching Democrats more readily than Republicans.

Johnson made the case at a rally in McAllen, Texas, and in an interview with the Washington Examiner after a campaign stop in New Bern, North Carolina. In McAllen, he said polling companies were oversampling Democrats and underestimating Republicans.

In the Examiner interview, he described low Republican participation as a problem affecting polling broadly, including surveys conducted for the GOP, and said polling organizations acknowledge it. Johnson also accused Democrats of using polls to produce a “self-fulfilling prophecy” that could suppress Republican turnout.

That is Johnson’s characterization of Democrats’ use of polling; the reported coverage does not independently establish that Democrats are using surveys with that purpose. His stated position is that polling should not guide the party’s expectations or campaign choices.

The Washington Examiner cited the Pew Research Center’s discussion of evidence that Republicans have become somewhat less likely than Democrats to take part in polls. The cited research says that pattern may have contributed to polls underestimating Donald Trump and other Republican candidates in the 2016, 2020 and 2024 elections.

It also cautions that participation differences appear less pronounced in midterm elections, while noting that some 2022 polls still underestimated Republican candidates’ support. That context supports a concern about polling participation, but it does not establish that current polls are systematically wrong.

Johnson said 22 races would decide which party holds the House majority. He also said he planned to campaign for Republicans in 40 districts across 22 states that month. Those remarks frame his poll criticism alongside an active campaign effort, rather than as a claim that the House contest is already settled.

The Center Square reported that the Cook Political Report had identified more than 30 races it said had shifted toward Democrats. Johnson’s estimate of 22 decisive races and that report’s count of more than 30 shifted races describe different assessments; they are not competing totals for the same measure.

The coverage also included Johnson’s prediction at the McAllen rally that Republicans would win Congress. The immediate political question raised by Johnson’s remarks is whether Republican voters’ polling participation and the polling models built from responses accurately reflect support in the House contests.

The reported accounts document Johnson’s argument, the Pew findings cited by the Examiner, and the campaign activity he described; they do not establish how the election will turn out or whether low Republican response rates explain the current polling picture.