Skip to content
Business · Asia Pacific

NextDC loses $3 billion in value after earnings downgrade

NextDC cut its earnings outlook after delays to power-grid upgrades for its M3 facility in Melbourne, and its shares fell more than 40 per cent on Wednesday. The company removed A$140 million in contracted revenue from its fiscal 2027 outlook, while its valuation fell by $3 billion.

AI-assisted synthesis · Based on 5 outlets' reporting · Article text read from 3 of 5 outlets · 1 article captured only in partHow it's made

View timeline · 7 entries
This story was corrected on Oct 23, 2026 following an editorial review.
5 outlets2 regionsLatest reporting 3 min read
Coverage: Too few ratedL 0 · C 1 · R 0 · 4 unrated
File photo
Photo: Melbpal / Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 4.0)

What happened

Key facts

  • The plunge followed an earnings downgrade.
  • The downgrade was triggered by an incident involving a power pole in suburban Melbourne, affecting a major source of NextDC’s growth.
  • NextDC’s valuation had exceeded $11 billion earlier in 2026.
  • Chief executive Craig Scroggie told investors and analysts that demand for digital infrastructure was unusually high.

The brief

NextDC’s shares fell more than 40 per cent on Wednesday after the company cut its earnings outlook, wiping $3 billion from its market value. The downgrade followed delays to power-grid upgrades for M3, its Melbourne data-centre facility, which affected the timing of contracted capacity and revenue.

NextDC removed A$140 million in contracted revenue from its fiscal 2027 outlook, according to the company’s statement reported by mingtiandi.com. It lowered its net-revenue guidance to A$475 million–A$500 million, from A$615 million–A$640 million, and its underlying EBITDA guidance to A$245 million–A$265 million, from A$385 million–A$410 million.

The Sydney Morning Herald also connected the downgrade to delayed high-voltage power-line work serving the West Footscray M3 site. NextDC said the next grid supply for West Footscray was not expected until mid-2027, delaying delivery and billing of contracted capacity.

Chief executive Craig Scroggie told investors that Jemena had advised the company that parts of the network work required for the next increase in grid supply to M3 Melbourne had been suspended. These accounts describe the grid delays as the immediate constraint behind the revised outlook.

The Sydney Morning Herald described community opposition as the backdrop to delays in installing high-voltage power lines. Its account also reported that the incident involving a power pole in suburban Melbourne affected a major source of the company’s growth.

The other accounts focus on grid upgrades and supply delays; they do not provide the same detail about community opposition or the power-pole incident. Scroggie said NextDC would stop work on projects without an existing customer commitment.

The company also said it had paused projects not backed by customer contracts and redirected capital toward capacity its customers had already contracted. Those decisions tie construction spending to contracted demand while the delayed M3 supply affects when the company can deliver and bill some capacity.

The revenue and earnings guidance cuts quantify the financial effect NextDC associates with the delay. The reported share-price decline reduced the company’s market value by $3 billion; the Sydney Morning Herald said its valuation had exceeded $11 billion earlier in 2026.

The account from mingtiandi.com reported that the shares closed at A$53.5 on Wednesday, down 41.72 per cent from the start of trading.

The sources differ in emphasis rather than in the central cause: the Sydney Morning Herald foregrounds community opposition and the power-pole incident, while mingtiandi.com details the revenue removed and the revised financial ranges, and smbtech.au focuses on the projected timing of new grid supply and Jemena’s suspended network work.

Why it matters

  • NextDC’s revised fiscal 2027 outlook removes A$140 million of contracted revenue, linking delayed grid upgrades at M3 to deferred delivery and billing.
  • The company cut net-revenue guidance to A$475 million–A$500 million and underlying EBITDA guidance to A$245 million–A$265 million, reducing the outlook for its contracted data-centre business.
  • NextDC’s shareholders absorbed a reported $3 billion decline in market value as the shares fell more than 40 per cent on Wednesday.
  • NextDC says it is redirecting capital away from projects without customer contracts and toward capacity customers have already contracted, making customer commitments central to its construction decisions.

What to watch next

  • Whether Jemena resumes the network work needed to increase grid supply to M3 Melbourne; the reports say parts of that work were suspended.
  • Whether the expected mid-2027 next grid supply for West Footscray changes, as that timing is tied to delivery and billing of contracted capacity.
  • Whether NextDC continues pausing projects without existing customer commitments, as Craig Scroggie said it would.
  • Whether NextDC changes its revised fiscal 2027 revenue and EBITDA guidance after the grid delays.

How it's being covered

Coverage analysisShow details
5 source articles · 5 unique outlets
Outlet political mix: Too few rated· 1 Center · 4 unrated
Where the outlets are based: Asia 40% · Unknown 40% · Other 20%
Outlet political mix
Too few rated
Left
Center
Right
0 outlets
1 outlet
0 outlets
The marker shows coverage balance: each unique outlet counts once. 4 unrated outlets are not included.
Geography
Where the outlets covering this story are based.
5 unique outletsDominant coverage: Asia
How we measure coverage

How outlets' accounts compare

3 framing differences · 1 uncorroborated claim · 2 information gaps
The reports repeat the same account with different emphasis; its central claims are not independently confirmed in the reporting Updat3 read.Compared across 3 reports whose article text Updat3 read; 2 other outlets were checked by headline only.
Framing / emphasis differences
Sources emphasise different angles, actors or consequences of the same reporting.
  • The Sydney Morning Herald emphasizes community opposition and a suburban Melbourne power-pole incident; mingtiandi.com emphasizes the A$140 million contracted-revenue removal and revised financial guidance.
  • smbtech.au emphasizes the mid-2027 expectation for further West Footscray grid supply and Jemena’s suspended network work.
  • The Sydney Morning Herald links the delays to community opposition and a power-pole incident; smbtech.au reports Jemena’s suspension of parts of the network work, as relayed by NextDC chief executive Craig Scroggie.
Updat3: These are differences of emphasis, not disputes about what is reported. They do not show that the reported claims are true.
One-sided or uncorroborated claims
Claims that come from one party or one source family and are not independently corroborated.
  • Craig Scroggie told an investor conference call that NextDC would not continue work on sites without an existing customer commitment.
Updat3: Not independently corroborated yet — treat as a claim, not an established fact.
Not established by the reporting
Information the available reporting does not contain or confirm. This is a gap, not a disagreement.
  • The sources do not provide figures for the number of affected residents, customers, or workers.
  • The reports do not clarify when Jemena’s suspended network work will resume.
Updat3: Updat3 cannot conclude anything about this from the current sources.

Timeline

Developments from this story's sources, dated background we compiled and fact-checked, and our earlier coverage. Each row says which.
  1. NEXTDC listed on the Australian Securities Exchange.
    Background · compiled and fact-checked by Updat3
  2. It opened its first data centre, B1 in Brisbane, in 2011, building a business that sells data-centre space and related services to organisations including cloud providers.
    Background · from our historical context
  3. Craig Scroggie became chief executive in 2012.
    Background · from our historical context
  4. NEXTDC announced its M3 West Footscray campus.
    Background · compiled and fact-checked by Updat3
  5. The Australian Government’s Digital Business Plan identified digital infrastructure as part of the country’s economic and technology base.
    Background · compiled and fact-checked by Updat3
  6. NEXTDC’s market valuation exceeded A$11 billion.
    Background · compiled and fact-checked by Updat3
  7. NextDC shares fell more than 40 per cent on Wednesday after the company downgraded its earnings outlook.
    Reported in this story's sourcesSource:mingtiandi.com

How we got here

Earlier in 2026, NEXTDC’s market valuation had exceeded A$11 billion, reflecting investor expectations for growth in data-centre capacity. NEXTDC was founded in 2010 and listed on the Australian Securities Exchange in December that year.

It opened its first data centre, B1 in Brisbane, in 2011, building a business that sells data-centre space and related services to organisations including cloud providers. Craig Scroggie became chief executive in 2012.

Original sources

5 articles from 5 outlets

Every story links to the reporting it was built from. How we choose sources

Spotted a factual error, a broken link or a misleading summary? Tell us.