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Politics · Asia Pacific

NSW Labor warns MPs One Nation could put more than a dozen seats at risk

NSW Labor officials told MPs the party could lose more than a dozen seats at the March election, with One Nation posing a potential threat.

AI-assisted synthesis · Based on 2 independent reports from 3 outlets · Article text read from 1 of 2 reportsHow it's made

View timeline · 7 entries
3 outletsLatest reporting 3 min read
Coverage: Center OnlyL 0 · C 3 · R 0
Updat3 graphic: NSW Labor
Updat3 graphic

What happened

Key facts

  • NSW Labor warned MPs that the party could lose more than a dozen seats at the March election (per The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age).
  • George Simon warned MPs at a meeting of Labor’s Left faction against complacency and outlined areas where Labor was vulnerable to One Nation (per The Sydney Morning Herald).
  • A source said the areas discussed encompassed about 12 seats (per The Sydney Morning Herald).
  • Labor delayed opening preselection in Wyong, where Gaming and Racing Minister David Harris was weighing whether to run again (per The Sydney Morning Herald).
  • Chris Minns said One Nation could become the largest party or the largest party after Labor (per The Sydney Morning Herald, afr.com).
  • Minns said that if he lost the election, it would be to One Nation (per The Sydney Morning Herald, afr.com).
  • A source said Labor MPs were complacent while the party’s primary vote was below 30 per cent and the economy was worsening (per The Sydney Morning Herald).

The brief

NSW Labor officials warned MPs that the party could lose more than a dozen seats at the March election, according to The Sydney Morning Herald. The warning came during closed-door briefings, with a meeting of Labor’s Left faction in NSW parliament among the settings described.

George Simon used that meeting to caution MPs against complacency and outline areas where Labor was vulnerable to One Nation. A source told the newspaper that the areas under discussion covered about 12 seats.

The account also quoted the source saying MPs and commentators were “a bit complacent.” The source linked that concern to Labor’s primary vote being below 30 per cent and a worsening economy, which the source said had put the Minns government at risk.

The paper reported that MPs in regional seats expected One Nation to be their most significant challenge, ahead of Liberal or Nationals candidates. That account describes MPs’ expectations, rather than an election result. Chris Minns said on Tuesday that if he lost the election, it would be to One Nation.

Minns also said One Nation could finish as the largest party or as the largest party after Labor, adding that it was polling extraordinarily well. His remarks set out his assessment of the party’s electoral standing; the reporting does not provide a polling figure.

Labor had delayed opening preselection in Wyong, where Gaming and Racing Minister David Harris was considering whether to seek another term. The report identifies the delay and Harris’s decision as unresolved, without stating what he would decide.

Internal party communications cited by the newspaper said Dobson would travel to the Hunter on Sunday to address branches in the Port Stephens and Maitland electorates. The stated subjects were the current political environment, Labor’s Hunter strategy and One Nation’s rise across NSW.

The newspaper also reported that a long-serving MP in a seat considered vulnerable to One Nation described recent door-knocking as “a reality check.”

Why it matters

  • If Labor loses enough of its 45 seats, its majority could shrink or disappear, forcing Chris Minns to negotiate with crossbench MPs to pass legislation and budgets. One Nation winning seats would give it a direct foothold in the lower house, potentially increasing its influence over parliamentary debate and the pressure on Labor’s policy agenda.

What to watch next

  • Whether Labor opens preselection in Wyong and whether David Harris decides to run again.
  • What Dobson tells branches in the Port Stephens and Maitland electorates during the planned Hunter visit on Sunday.
  • Whether Labor MPs’ expectations about One Nation as a leading challenge in regional seats are reflected in the March election.

How it's being covered

Coverage analysisShow details
4 source articles · 3 unique outlets · 2 distinct reports
Outlet political mix: Center Only· 3 Center
Where the outlets are based: Asia 67% · Unknown 33%
Outlet political mix
Center Only
Left
Center
Right
0 outlets
3 outlets
0 outlets
The marker shows coverage balance: each unique outlet counts once.
Geography
Where the outlets covering this story are based.
3 unique outletsDominant coverage: Asia
Coverage imbalance
  • Coverage is currently concentrated among Center-rated outlets (3 of 3 rated sources); comparatively few Left or Right-rated outlets have published on the event.
How we measure coverage

How outlets' accounts compare

Updat3 does not yet have enough full reports to compare how outlets framed this story.

Timeline

Developments from this story's sources, dated background we compiled and fact-checked, and our earlier coverage. Each row says which.
  1. NSW voters approved fixed four-year parliamentary terms in a referendum.
    Background · compiled and fact-checked by Updat3
  2. Pauline Hanson argued for sharply reduced immigration in her maiden speech to Parliament.
    Background · compiled and fact-checked by Updat3
  3. Pauline Hanson founded One Nation.
    Background · compiled and fact-checked by Updat3
  4. The Coalition won the NSW election, ending Labor’s 16 years in government.
    Background · compiled and fact-checked by Updat3
  5. In 2023, the party’s vote therefore did not translate into representation in the chamber where the government is formed.
    Background · from our historical context
  6. At the March 2023 NSW election, Chris Minns led Labor to government after 12 years in opposition; Labor won 45 seats in the 93-seat Legislative Assembly.
    Background · from our historical context
  7. Chris Minns was sworn in as NSW premier.
    Background · compiled and fact-checked by Updat3

How we got here

At the March 2023 NSW election, Chris Minns led Labor to government after 12 years in opposition; Labor won 45 seats in the 93-seat Legislative Assembly. That result set the baseline for the next state contest: Labor entered office with a majority, while One Nation won no lower-house seats.

In 2023, the party’s vote therefore did not translate into representation in the chamber where the government is formed. NSW’s four-year parliamentary terms were established by constitutional changes approved at a 1991 referendum. One Nation has previously converted electoral support into NSW parliamentary representation.

Original sources

4 articles from 3 outlets

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