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Politics · North America

Poll puts Graham and Andrews within one point in South Carolina race

A South Carolina Senate poll puts Darline Graham and Annie Andrews just one point apart, suggesting a highly competitive race; Andrews previously ran unsuccessfully for Congress in 2022.

AI-assisted synthesis · Based on 5 outlets' reporting · Article text read from 3 of 5 outletsHow it's made

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5 outletsLatest reporting 3 min read
Coverage: MixedL 1 · C 2 · R 1 · 1 unrated
File photo
Photo: Rosa Pineda, United States Senate / Wikimedia Commons (Public domain)

What happened

Key facts

  • A New York Times poll found Darline Graham and Annie Andrews in a close South Carolina Senate race among likely voters; Washington Examiner says Graham led by less than one percentage point, tippahnews.com reports a 48%-48% tie, and Yahoo describes the candidates as neck and neck (per tippahnews.com).
  • The New York Times poll was conducted last week among likely voters (per Washington Examiner, tippahnews.com, The New York Times).
  • Andrews led Graham among independent voters, 57% to 37% (per Washington Examiner).
  • On foreign wars, Andrews led Graham, 46% to 44% (per Washington Examiner).
  • A majority of voters said Andrews would handle the economy better, and she held a narrow advantage on cost of living (per Washington Examiner, abcnews4.com, tippahnews.com).
  • Asked which candidate would do what is best for ordinary South Carolinians, 49% chose Andrews and 46% chose Graham (per Washington Examiner).
  • The poll found that 51% said Graham lacked the right experience to be an effective senator, including 18% of Republicans; 54% said Andrews had the right experience, including 22% of Republicans (per Washington Examiner).
  • A separate poll conducted October 16-25 among 1,200 registered South Carolina voters showed Andrews trailing Graham 47% to 46% (per abcnews4.com).
  • The Hill reported that the New York Times/Siena University poll put Graham and Andrews at 48% each among likely voters (per tippahnews.com).

The brief

A New York Times poll places Darline Graham less than one percentage point ahead of Annie Andrews among likely voters in South Carolina’s Senate race, while a separate account of a New York Times/Siena University poll puts the two candidates at 48% each. The figures portray a contest with little separation in the polling, though the reports describe different poll results.

The Washington Examiner’s account of the New York Times poll says Andrews leads Graham among independent voters, 57% to 37%. Andrews also has a 46%-44% advantage on foreign wars. On the economy, a majority of respondents said Andrews would handle the issue better, and she held a narrower lead on cost of living.

Respondents also favored Andrews when asked which candidate would do what is best for ordinary South Carolinians: 49% selected her and 46% Graham. On experience, 51% said Graham did not have the right experience to be an effective senator, compared with 54% who said Andrews did.

The responses included cross-party assessments: 18% of Republicans said Graham lacked the experience, while 22% said Andrews had it. The New York Times poll was conducted last week among likely voters. Separately, ABC News 4 reported a poll conducted October 16-25 among 1,200 registered South Carolina voters, with Andrews trailing Graham 47% to 46%.

The two reports therefore give different margins and sample descriptions; the New York Times poll account and the separately reported registered-voter poll should not be treated as a single survey. Tippahnews.com, citing The Hill, reports another result from a New York Times/Siena University poll: Graham and Andrews were tied at 48% among likely voters.

The Hill’s report was published with less than a week remaining before Election Day, according to the excerpt. Yahoo’s headline also characterizes the candidates as neck and neck before Election Day, without giving figures. Taken together, the reports highlight both the close top-line contest and distinctions within the electorate.

The New York Times poll account shows Andrews leading among independents and on foreign wars, while respondents also rated her more favorably on the economy, cost of living and experience. The race remains closely measured in the cited results, but the figures vary across the separate poll accounts.

Why it matters

  • The near tie makes South Carolina’s Senate seat a genuine contest, so either campaign may need to shift resources and sharpen its appeal to undecided and independent voters. Andrews’s advantages on the economy and cost of living, alongside her narrow lead on foreign wars, suggest that household costs and U.S. military involvement could shape voters’ choices and the eventual direction of the state’s representation in the Senate.

What to watch next

  • Watch for the next South Carolina Senate poll in the coming weeks to show whether Graham or Andrews has pulled ahead among likely voters and independents.
  • Check whether either campaign releases new economic or cost-of-living proposals before the next major campaign events, where those issues could test Andrews’s reported advantage.
  • Track whether Graham responds to Andrews’s 46%–44% edge on foreign wars with a revised message or new policy detail in upcoming campaign appearances.
  • Look for the campaigns to target independent voters over the next few weeks, given Andrews’s 57%–37% advantage among that group.

How it's being covered

Coverage analysisShow details
5 source articles · 5 unique outlets
Outlet political mix: Mixed· 1 Left · 2 Center · 1 Right · 1 unrated
Where the outlets are based: US/Canada 80% · Unknown 20%
Outlet political mix
Mixed
Left
Center
Right
1 outlet
2 outlets
1 outlet
The marker shows coverage balance: each unique outlet counts once. 1 unrated outlet is not included.
Geography
Where the outlets covering this story are based.
5 unique outletsDominant coverage: US/Canada
Coverage imbalance
  • Coverage is currently concentrated among outlets based in US/Canada (4 of 5 geographically-identified sources).
How we measure coverage

How outlets' accounts compare

2 factual disagreements · 1 framing difference · 1 uncorroborated claim · 1 information gap
Sources disagree on 2 factual points.Compared across 3 reports whose article text Updat3 read; 2 other outlets were checked by headline only.
Factual disagreements
Sources report different numbers, dates, attribution or causes for the same thing.
  • Washington Examiner reports Graham ahead by less than one percentage point in the New York Times poll; tippahnews.com reports a 48%-48% tie in a New York Times/Siena University poll. abcnews4.com reports a separate poll with Graham ahead 47%-46%.
  • The reported top-line results differ across accounts: Graham leads by less than one percentage point in Washington Examiner, the candidates are tied at 48% in tippahnews.com, and Andrews trails 47% to 46% in abcnews4.com’s separate registered-voter poll.
Updat3: The evidence conflicts; Updat3 does not present either version as established.
Framing / emphasis differences
Sources emphasise different angles, actors or consequences of the same reporting.
  • The Washington Examiner describes Graham as less than one percentage point ahead in the New York Times poll, while Tippahnews.com, citing The Hill, reports a 48%-48% tie from a New York Times/Siena University poll.
Updat3: These are differences of emphasis, not disputes about what is reported. They do not show that the reported claims are true.
One-sided or uncorroborated claims
Claims that come from one party or one source family and are not independently corroborated.
  • Washington Examiner reports that 49% chose Andrews and 46% Graham when asked which candidate would do what is best for ordinary South Carolinians.
Updat3: Not independently corroborated yet — treat as a claim, not an established fact.
Not established by the reporting
Information the available reporting does not contain or confirm. This is a gap, not a disagreement.
  • The source accounts do not specify the exact vote share for Graham and Andrews in the New York Times poll described by Washington Examiner.
Updat3: Updat3 cannot conclude anything about this from the current sources.

Timeline

Developments from this story's sources, dated background we compiled and fact-checked, and our earlier coverage. Each row says which.
  1. The Constitutional Convention provided for state legislatures to choose U.S. senators.
    Background · compiled and fact-checked by Updat3
  2. The six-year term is set by Article I, Section 3 of the U.S. Constitution, while the Seventeenth Amendment, ratified April 8, 1913, established direct election of senators by voters.
    Background · from our historical context
  3. South Carolina voted for Republican presidential candidate Barry Goldwater in 1964, the first time it had supported a Republican for president since Reconstruction.
    Background · from our historical context
  4. In 1966, Republican Albert Watson became the first Republican elected to Congress from South Carolina since Reconstruction.
    Background · from our historical context
  5. The closest previous statewide Senate contest involving Graham was South Carolina’s November 3, 2020, election, when Republican Lindsey Graham won a fourth term, defeating Democrat Jaime Harrison.
    Background · from our historical context
  6. The new six-year term for South Carolina’s Class II Senate seat began.
    Background · compiled and fact-checked by Updat3
  7. Annie Andrews’s previous congressional campaign was in 2022: she ran as a Democrat against Republican Nancy Mace in South Carolina’s 1st Congressional District and lost.
    Background · from our historical context
  8. A separate poll conducted October 16-25 among 1,200 registered South Carolina voters showed Andrews trailing Graham 47% to 46%.
    Reported in this story's sourcesSource:abcnews4.com

How we got here

The closest previous statewide Senate contest involving Graham was South Carolina’s November 3, 2020, election, when Republican Lindsey Graham won a fourth term, defeating Democrat Jaime Harrison. Annie Andrews’s previous congressional campaign was in 2022: she ran as a Democrat against Republican Nancy Mace in South Carolina’s 1st Congressional District and lost.

South Carolina’s Senate seat is part of the Senate’s Class II, whose terms run from January 3, 2021, through January 3, 2027, following the 2020 election. The six-year term is set by Article I, Section 3 of the U.S. Constitution, while the Seventeenth Amendment, ratified April 8, 1913, established direct election of senators by voters.

Original sources

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