Skip to content
Sign in
Politics · North America

Experts warn election-betting odds could confuse US voters

Polymarket and Kalshi offer contracts tied to thousands of US midterm election outcomes, while experts warn that election odds could confuse voters and supply material for misinformation. Kalshi says its markets provide information distinct from polling and that trading probabilities do not guarantee election results.

AI-assisted synthesis · Based on 2 outlets' reporting · Article text read from 1 of 2 outletsHow it's made

View timeline · 9 entries
2 outletsLatest reporting 3 min read
Coverage: Too few ratedL 0 · C 2 · R 0
Updat3 graphic: United States
Updat3 graphic · Map data: Natural Earth Natural Earth (public domain)

What happened

Key facts

  • Experts warn that election odds featured in news coverage and on social media could confuse voters and provide material for misinformation (per The Straits Times).
  • US President Donald Trump has made unsubstantiated allegations of election fraud central to his political movement ahead of the Nov 3 vote (per The Straits Times).
  • Kalshi said its markets provide data distinct from polling and that market probabilities do not guarantee election outcomes (per The Straits Times).
  • Kalshi said other buyers counter attempts to manipulate market odds (per The Straits Times).

The brief

Polymarket and Kalshi are offering contracts tied to thousands of US midterm election outcomes, as experts warn that betting odds circulated through news coverage and social media could confuse voters and feed misinformation.

The Straits Times reported that concerns include attempts to push market prices and the possibility that voters could treat market expectations as a measure of the eventual vote. Davina Hurt, government ethics director at Santa Clara University’s Markkula Center for Applied Ethics, said financial-market expectations could outweigh votes in the public’s mind.

Hurt also said prediction markets are increasingly shaping how Americans understand elections, and stressed that elections are not games. The concern has particular relevance ahead of the Nov 3 vote because US President Donald Trump has made allegations of election fraud central to his political movement, The Straits Times reported.

The outlet described those allegations as unsubstantiated. Experts cited in its account warned that voters could blame fraud if election results differ from the odds they have encountered. Kalshi’s head of communications, Elisabeth Diana, said the company’s markets should complement traditional polling.

Kalshi argues that its markets provide a different kind of data and that probabilities do not guarantee results. The company also said other buyers can counter attempts to manipulate odds. The Straits Times reported that both Kalshi and Polymarket issue race projections on social media and have partnered with prominent news organisations.

Michael Sanchez, a spokesman for the Los Angeles County registrar’s office, said the June primary showed how readily expectations about election outcomes can become confused with actual results. Kalshi has also instructed paid partners not to question the integrity or accuracy of official vote tallies, legal rulings or other formal determinations connected to an election.

That restriction addresses what partners may say about official results; it does not remove the distinction between a market probability and a vote count. Trading in prediction markets has grown while legal disputes continue over whether these platforms fall under federal commodities regulation or state gambling laws.

The Straits Times did not identify the specific cases or decisions involved. Sanchez said election administrations are under attack, adding to the concern about how information and claims surrounding election results circulate. The account does not establish whether market odds have altered voters’ views or affected any official result.

Why it matters

  • US voters face the specific risk experts describe: odds circulating in news coverage and social media could be mistaken for likely vote outcomes, potentially feeding misinformation when results differ.
  • Davina Hurt’s concern is that financial-market expectations could outweigh votes in the public mind, putting the interpretation of actual election results at stake.
  • Kalshi and Polymarket publish race projections on social media and have partnered with prominent news organisations, giving their market information routes into election coverage.
  • Kalshi’s paid-partner restriction bars questioning official tallies and formal determinations, while legal disputes concern whether prediction markets fall under federal commodities rules or state gambling laws.

What to watch next

  • Whether Kalshi’s paid partners follow its instruction not to question official vote tallies, legal rulings or other formal election determinations.
  • Whether Kalshi or Polymarket issue race projections on social media as the Nov 3 vote approaches.
  • How the legal disputes over federal commodities regulation versus state gambling laws are resolved.
  • Whether election odds diverge from actual results in the Nov 3 vote, the scenario experts identify as a possible source of fraud claims.

How it's being covered

Coverage analysisShow details
2 source articles · 2 unique outlets · 1 distinct report
Outlet political mix: Too few rated· 2 Center
Where the outlets are based: Asia 100%
Outlet political mix
Too few rated
Left
Center
Right
0 outlets
2 outlets
0 outlets
The marker shows coverage balance: each unique outlet counts once.
Geography
Where the outlets covering this story are based.
2 unique outletsDominant coverage: Asia
Limited coverage
  • Coverage is currently limited to 2 outlets.
How we measure coverage

One source is from a wire service (AP, Reuters, AFP or Bloomberg), whose reporting other outlets often republish.

How outlets' accounts compare

Only one independent source family is currently available, so cross-source comparison is not possible yet.

Timeline

Developments from this story's sources, dated background we compiled and fact-checked, and our earlier coverage. Each row says which.
  1. The University of Iowa established the Iowa Electronic Markets in 1988 as a research project where participants traded small-stakes contracts tied to political and economic outcomes.
    Background · from our historical context
  2. President Barack Obama signed the Dodd-Frank Act, which expanded the CFTC’s authority to prohibit certain contracts.
    Background · compiled and fact-checked by Updat3
  3. Democrats gained control of the House while Republicans retained the Senate in Donald Trump’s first midterm election.
    Background · compiled and fact-checked by Updat3
  4. After Joe Biden defeated Donald Trump in the November 3, 2020, presidential election, Trump repeatedly alleged that the result was fraudulent, claims rejected by courts and election officials.
    Background · from our historical context
  5. On January 6, 2021, Trump supporters attacked the U.S. Capitol as Congress met to certify the result.
    Background · from our historical context
  6. In January 2022, the CFTC had ordered Polymarket to pay a $1.4 million penalty and required it to stop offering unregistered event-based binary options to U.S. customers.
    Background · from our historical context
  7. Kalshi challenged the decision in court in November 2023.
    Background · from our historical context
  8. A federal judge ruled that the CFTC had not adequately justified blocking Kalshi’s congressional-control contracts.
    Background · compiled and fact-checked by Updat3
  9. Donald Trump won the presidency, and Republicans gained control of the Senate.
    Background · compiled and fact-checked by Updat3

How we got here

The immediate precedent for election odds entering U.S. news coverage was the 2024 presidential election, when prediction markets drew substantial attention and Kalshi began offering contracts tied to U.S. election outcomes. On September 6, 2024, a federal judge in *KalshiEx LLC v.

CFTC* ruled that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission had not adequately justified blocking Kalshi’s congressional-control contracts; after the court declined to keep the ban in place, Kalshi listed the contracts that month.

Original sources

2 articles from 2 outlets · Asia · Show all

Every story links to the reporting it was built from. How we choose sources

Spotted a factual error, a broken link or a misleading summary? Tell us.