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Geopolitics · Middle East

Palestinian parties projected to gain seats as Israel’s blocs tie

Exit polls project Palestinian parties will win 17 to 18 seats in Israel’s Knesset, up from 10, while Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition and the opposition bloc are tied. Neither bloc has a majority in the 120-seat parliament, making negotiations with Palestinian parties important to forming a government.

AI-assisted synthesis · Based on 3 independent reports from 4 outlets · Article text read from 1 of 3 reportsHow it's made

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This story was corrected on Oct 28, 2026 following an editorial review.
4 outlets2 regionsLatest reporting 3 min read
Coverage: Mostly CenterL 1 · C 2 · R 0 · 1 unrated
Updat3 graphic: Israel
Updat3 graphic · Map data: Natural Earth Natural Earth (public domain)

What happened

Key facts

  • Palestinian parties are projected to win 17 to 18 seats, compared with 10 in the previous Knesset.
  • Neither bloc has enough seats for a majority in the 120-seat parliament, according to the extract.
  • If actual results confirm the exit polls, Isaac Herzog would have discretion over whom to ask first to try to form a government.
  • The extract says a candidate who cannot form a government in six weeks would pass the challenge to the next option, while Netanyahu’s coalition remains in a caretaker role.
  • Eisenkot and his partners would need to negotiate with the Joint List and Ra’am to seek a Knesset majority.
  • Mansour Abbas and Ra’am are presented as potentially easier partners for Eisenkot’s bloc to negotiate with.

The brief

Exit polls project Palestinian parties will increase their representation in Israel’s Knesset to 17 to 18 seats, compared with 10 in the previous parliament. The projection leaves Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition tied with the opposition bloc, and neither side has enough seats for a majority in the 120-seat legislature, according to AOL’s account of the election.

The projected gains put negotiations with Palestinian parties at the centre of efforts to form a government. AOL described the increased representation as a challenge for the mainstream opposition: it would need to cooperate with Arab Israeli parties to pursue a majority, or risk leaving Netanyahu’s coalition a route to remain in power.

The article did not present the exit-poll figures as final results. If the final count confirms the projections, President Isaac Herzog would have discretion over whom to invite first to try to form a government. AOL says a candidate who cannot assemble a government within six weeks would hand the opportunity to the next option.

During that process, Netanyahu’s coalition would continue in a caretaker role. Gadi Eisenkot and his partners would need to negotiate with the Joint List and Ra’am to reach a Knesset majority. The Joint List is projected to win at least 11 seats, and AOL characterizes negotiations with it as more difficult.

By contrast, the article describes Mansour Abbas and Ra’am as potentially easier partners for Eisenkot’s bloc to engage. AOL notes that Abbas has a Jewish Zionist deputy and has shown willingness to make political compromises. It reports that Abbas said his priority was to remove Benjamin Netanyahu, Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir through the election.

His stated position points to a possible shared political objective with opponents of Netanyahu’s coalition, while the seat projections leave the terms of any agreement unresolved.

The account also quotes a Joint List official, speaking at the party’s victory gathering in Nazareth in the early hours of Wednesday, saying the opposition would have to choose between “supremacy and building democracy.” That statement frames the coalition question as a choice over political principles; the article does not identify the official by name.

The immediate test is whether the final results preserve the projected seat totals and the tie between the blocs. Those figures would shape Herzog’s choice of whom to approach first and whether Eisenkot’s partners can negotiate enough support from Ra’am and the Joint List to form a government.

Why it matters

  • The 17-to-18-seat projection for Palestinian parties, up from 10, makes their support a potential route to a Knesset majority for a bloc that currently falls short.
  • Neither Netanyahu’s coalition nor the opposition bloc has a majority in the 120-seat parliament, so both face a government-formation process without a clear seat advantage.
  • The Joint List’s projected 11 or more seats and Ra’am’s potential role give negotiations with those parties a concrete place in the effort to assemble a majority.

What to watch next

  • Whether final election results confirm the projected 17 to 18 seats for Palestinian parties and the tie between the blocs.
  • Whom Isaac Herzog asks first to try to form a government if the final results confirm the exit polls.
  • Whether Gadi Eisenkot and his partners negotiate with the Joint List and Ra’am to seek a Knesset majority.
  • Whether a candidate who receives the opportunity can form a government within the stated six-week period or passes the task to the next option.

How it's being covered

Coverage analysisShow details
4 source articles · 4 unique outlets · 3 distinct reports
Outlet political mix: Mostly Center· 1 Left · 2 Center · 1 unrated
Where the outlets are based: Europe 75% · US/Canada 25%
Outlet political mix
Mostly Center
Left
Center
Right
1 outlet
2 outlets
0 outlets
The marker shows coverage balance: each unique outlet counts once. 1 unrated outlet is not included.
Geography
Where the outlets covering this story are based.
4 unique outletsDominant coverage: Europe
Coverage imbalance
  • Coverage is currently concentrated among outlets based in Europe (3 of 4 geographically-identified sources).
How we measure coverage

How outlets' accounts compare

Updat3 does not yet have enough full reports to compare how outlets framed this story.

Timeline

Developments from this story's sources, dated background we compiled and fact-checked, and our earlier coverage. Each row says which.
  1. Arab citizens of Israel have voted in Knesset elections since the first parliamentary election in 1949.
    Background · from our historical context
  2. Israel’s Knesset passed the Governance Law, raising the electoral threshold to 3.25 percent.
    Background · compiled and fact-checked by Updat3
  3. Four Arab-led parties formed the Joint List, which won 13 seats in the Knesset election.
    Background · compiled and fact-checked by Updat3
  4. The alliance later fractured: Ra’am ran separately in 2021, while Hadash and Ta’al continued together.
    Background · from our historical context
  5. Israel held a Knesset election in which Likud won the most seats but Benjamin Netanyahu did not assemble a majority.
    Background · compiled and fact-checked by Updat3
  6. Ra’am joined the coalition government led by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid.
    Background · compiled and fact-checked by Updat3
  7. Isaac Herzog became president in July 2021, after the Knesset elected him to the largely ceremonial office.
    Background · from our historical context
  8. Israel held a Knesset election in which Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc won a majority.
    Background · compiled and fact-checked by Updat3
  9. Benjamin Netanyahu’s new government was sworn in after the 2022 election.
    Background · compiled and fact-checked by Updat3
  10. Benny Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot left Israel’s emergency government.
    Background · compiled and fact-checked by Updat3

How we got here

Before the election described in the current report, Israel’s 2022 election produced 10 seats for Arab-led parties: Ra’am won five and Hadash-Ta’al won five. Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc secured 64 of the Knesset’s 120 seats, and he formed a government.

That result followed the 2021 election, when Ra’am won four seats and became the first independent Arab party to join an Israeli governing coalition, supporting a government led by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid.

Original sources

1 of 4 articles · US/Canada · Show all

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