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Finance & Markets · North America

Southern California home sales remain far below their long-term average

Southern California home sales over the 12 months through July 2026 ran 33% below the average annual pace recorded since 2005. Buyers who completed purchases still paid prices near record highs, while an estimated monthly payment for a median-priced home reached $5,765.

AI-assisted synthesis · Based on 2 outlets' reporting · Article text read from 1 of 2 outletsHow it's made

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2 outletsLatest reporting 3 min read
Coverage: Too few ratedL 0 · C 1 · R 1

What happened

Key facts

  • Across six Southern California counties, home sales for the 12 months ending in July 2026 were 33% below the average annual pace since 2005 (per New York Post).
  • Seven of those 25 low-sales months fell during the 2007–2008 financial crisis, and one was May 2020 (per New York Post).
  • The California Association of Realtors estimated that 15% of Orange County households could afford a home purchase this past spring (per New York Post).

The brief

Home sales across six Southern California counties remained sharply below their long-term pace, even as home prices stayed close to record highs. The New York Post reported that sales during the 12 months ending in July 2026 were 33% below the average annual level since 2005.

Its account describes a market where transactions are scarce but buyers who complete purchases still pay near-record prices. The article places the recent slowdown among the weakest periods in more than two decades. Of the 25 months with the lowest sales totals over the past 21 years, 17 occurred since 2023, according to the figures it discusses.

Seven of the 25 months fell during the 2007–2008 financial crisis, while another was May 2020. The New York Post says Los Angeles Daily News business columnist Jonathan Lansner analyzed the sales figures through July 2026. Affordability figures in the account show the gap facing prospective buyers.

The California Association of Realtors estimated that only 15% of Orange County households could afford to purchase a home this past spring. For a buyer purchasing a median-priced home in Southern California, the estimated monthly housing cost was $5,765, including mortgage payments, property taxes, homeowners insurance and mortgage insurance.

Rent was substantially lower in the comparison cited by the article. Zillow estimated that typical monthly rent for a house or apartment in Southern California was about $2,860 in July—less than half the estimated monthly cost of buying.

The figures describe different housing costs, but the account uses them to illustrate the size of the monthly-payment gap between renting and purchasing. The Orange County Register’s headline separately characterized the regional pace as the second slowest on record.

The New York Post’s account gives a longer-term comparison instead: annual sales across the six counties were 33% below the average since 2005. Both descriptions point to unusually low sales, while the price picture remains near-record rather than falling in step with transaction volume.

The sales and affordability measures are the principal indicators documented in the account: the 12-month sales comparison, the frequency of recent low-sales months, Orange County’s affordability estimate and the monthly costs of buying and renting.

The data presented show that low transaction volume has coincided with high purchase costs, leaving a small estimated share of Orange County households able to afford a home.

Why it matters

  • The New York Post’s figures put sales across six Southern California counties 33% below their average annual pace since 2005, while prices remained near record highs.
  • The California Association of Realtors estimated that only 15% of Orange County households could afford a home purchase this past spring.
  • The estimated monthly cost of buying a median-priced Southern California home was $5,765, compared with Zillow’s approximately $2,860 typical monthly rent estimate for July.

What to watch next

  • Whether sales across the six Southern California counties move closer to the average annual pace since 2005.
  • Whether the estimated share of Orange County households able to afford a purchase changes from the 15% figure cited for this past spring.
  • Whether estimated monthly costs for buying and renting continue to diverge from the $5,765 and approximately $2,860 figures cited.

How it's being covered

Coverage analysisShow details
2 source articles · 2 unique outlets
Outlet political mix: Too few rated· 1 Center · 1 Right
Where the outlets are based: US/Canada 50% · Unknown 50%
Outlet political mix
Too few rated
Left
Center
Right
0 outlets
1 outlet
1 outlet
The marker shows coverage balance: each unique outlet counts once.
Geography
Where the outlets covering this story are based.
2 unique outletsDominant coverage: US/Canada
Limited coverage
  • Coverage is currently limited to 2 outlets.
How we measure coverage

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Timeline

Developments from this story's sources, dated background we compiled and fact-checked, and our earlier coverage. Each row says which.
  1. In 1947, the Levittown development in New York became a prominent model for mass-produced suburban housing, while Southern California’s own postwar population and homebuilding expanded rapidly.
    Background · from our historical context
  2. California enacted a law requiring cities and counties to plan for their housing needs.
    Background · compiled and fact-checked by Updat3
  3. The region’s market had also been shaped by Proposition 13, which California voters approved on June 6, 1978, and by postwar suburban growth.
    Background · from our historical context
  4. The U.S. housing market entered a crisis marked by falling home prices and rising foreclosures.
    Background · compiled and fact-checked by Updat3
  5. Falling prices and foreclosures followed the collapse of a mortgage boom built in part on risky lending; the federal Dodd–Frank Act, signed in 2010, introduced new financial regulation.
    Background · from our historical context
  6. In 2021, California enacted Senate Bill 9, allowing certain duplexes and lot splits in areas zoned for single-family homes.
    Background · from our historical context

How we got here

The immediate backdrop was the sharp change in borrowing costs after the Federal Reserve began raising its benchmark rate in March 2022: Freddie Mac’s average 30-year mortgage rate rose from 3.22% in January 2022 to 7.08% in November.

California home sales fell in 2022 and 2023; the California Association of Realtors reported that 2023 sales reached their lowest annual total since 2007. The state’s 1969 housing-element law required cities and counties to plan for housing needs, while the 1978 passage of Proposition 13 capped property-tax assessments and restricted local revenue growth.

Original sources

2 articles from 2 outlets

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