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Trump’s low approval weighs on Republicans’ midterm prospects

The Sydney Morning Herald editorial says President Donald Trump’s approval rating has fallen to 36 per cent as Republicans face the congressional midterms. It says Democrats are leading in polls and that voters rank healthcare, taxes and concerns about special interests ahead of Trump-focused advertisements.

AI-assisted synthesis · Based on 4 outlets' reporting · Article text read from 1 of 4 outletsHow it's made

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What happened

Key facts

  • The Sydney Morning Herald editorial says Trump’s approval rating has fallen to 36 per cent.
  • The editorial says the congressional midterms have become a referendum on Trump’s leadership.
  • The editorial says Democrats are leading in polls and that Trump’s support among groups that backed him in the previous election has declined.
  • The editorial says healthcare, taxes and accusations of being beholden to special interests rank ahead of Trump-focused advertisements among voter concerns.
  • The editorial says Republicans control both the House and Senate by narrow margins.
  • The editorial says Republicans have used gerrymandering and political donations in efforts to stop Democrats.
  • The editorial says Trump urged the Republican Midterm Convention in Dallas, Texas, to ask voters to imagine he was on the ballot.

The brief

President Donald Trump’s approval rating has fallen to a record 36 per cent, and a Sydney Morning Herald editorial says the decline is weighing on Republican prospects in the congressional midterms. The editorial says Democrats are leading in polls and describes the election as a referendum on Trump’s leadership.

The editorial also says Trump has lost support among groups that backed him in the previous election. It presents that shift alongside the low approval figure as evidence of political pressure on Republicans, while making clear that the assessment is the editorial’s account of the contest.

Voters’ concerns, the editorial says, extend beyond Trump-focused campaign advertisements. It identifies healthcare and taxes, as well as accusations that Trump is beholden to special interests, as issues ranking ahead of those advertisements. The editorial does not provide poll figures for these issue rankings.

The Sydney Morning Herald says Republicans control both the House and Senate by narrow margins. It also says the party has used gerrymandering and political donations in efforts to stop Democrats. The account does not give figures for those donations or identify particular districts or measures associated with the gerrymandering claim.

The editorial points to Trump’s own involvement in the midterm campaign. It says he urged the Republican Midterm Convention in Dallas, Texas, last August to “pretend, please, that I’m on the ballot.” The quoted appeal links the president directly to the campaign, though he is not himself standing in the congressional midterms, according to the editorial’s description.

The piece argues that Trump’s popularity and political controversies could shape Republican prospects, but it does not establish the election outcome. It says Trump’s role would be central if Democrats seized control of the House of Representatives.

Its assessment therefore ties the party’s outlook to both polling and voters’ stated priorities, while leaving the result contingent on the congressional vote. The editorial also invokes the view that a president’s party typically loses midterm elections, describing that pattern as axiomatic.

That is the editorial’s characterization; it supplies no historical figures to quantify the pattern. Its central claim is that Trump’s low approval and voters’ priorities create a difficult political setting for Republicans, who currently hold narrow congressional majorities, while Democrats lead in polls.

Why it matters

  • The Sydney Morning Herald editorial puts Trump’s approval at 36 per cent and says Democrats are leading in polls, making those measures central to its account of Republican midterm prospects.
  • Voters’ attention to healthcare and taxes, and accusations about special interests, ranks ahead of Trump-focused advertisements in the editorial’s account of their concerns.
  • The editorial says Republicans’ narrow control of both the House and Senate is at stake in a contest it describes as a referendum on Trump’s leadership.

What to watch next

  • Whether Democrats maintain their polling lead, which the Sydney Morning Herald editorial says they currently hold.
  • Whether healthcare, taxes and accusations about special interests continue to rank ahead of Trump-focused advertisements among voter concerns, as the editorial describes.
  • Whether the congressional midterms result in Democrats taking control of the House, the possibility the editorial identifies.

How it's being covered

Coverage analysisShow details
4 source articles · 4 unique outlets
Outlet political mix: Too few rated· 2 Center · 2 unrated
Where the outlets are based: US/Canada 50% · Asia 25% · Other 25%
Outlet political mix
Too few rated
Left
Center
Right
0 outlets
2 outlets
0 outlets
The marker shows coverage balance: each unique outlet counts once. 2 unrated outlets are not included.
Geography
Where the outlets covering this story are based.
4 unique outletsDominant coverage: US/Canada
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Timeline

Developments from this story's sources, dated background we compiled and fact-checked, and our earlier coverage. Each row says which.
  1. The Constitution was ratified, establishing two-year terms for House members and six-year terms for senators.
    Background · compiled and fact-checked by Updat3
  2. In 1812, Massachusetts governor Elbridge Gerry signed a redistricting plan that gave rise to the term “gerrymandering.”
    Background · from our historical context
  3. The Seventeenth Amendment, ratified in 1913, established direct election of senators.
    Background · from our historical context
  4. Democrats gained control of the House while Republicans retained the Senate in Donald Trump’s first midterm election.
    Background · compiled and fact-checked by Updat3
  5. Republicans won a narrow House majority and Democrats retained the Senate in the midterm elections.
    Background · compiled and fact-checked by Updat3
  6. Donald Trump won the presidency, and Republicans gained control of the Senate.
    Background · compiled and fact-checked by Updat3
  7. Donald Trump was inaugurated for a second, non-consecutive term as U.S. president.
    Background · compiled and fact-checked by Updat3
  8. In August 2025, Trump addressed the Republican Midterm Convention in Dallas, Texas, and urged Republicans to act as though he himself were on the ballot, according to the event’s account in the Sydney Morning Herald.
    Background · from our historical context

How we got here

Donald Trump won the 2024 presidential election and took office on January 20, 2025, giving Republicans control of the presidency as the new congressional term began.

In August 2025, Trump addressed the Republican Midterm Convention in Dallas, Texas, and urged Republicans to act as though he himself were on the ballot, according to the event’s account in the Sydney Morning Herald. The 2026 congressional elections are the first midterms of his current presidency. The U.S.

Original sources

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