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Politics · North America

Toronto mayoral race may hinge on turnout, pollster says

Surveys ahead of Toronto’s mayoral vote suggested Olivia Chow and Brad Bradford were in a close race, while pollster David Valentin said turnout and voter mobilization could shape the result. Valentin pointed to downtown voting patterns and Bradford’s door-knocking campaign competing with Chow’s traditionally strong get-out-the-vote operation.

AI-assisted synthesis · Based on 5 outlets' reporting · Article text read from 1 of 5 outlets · 1 article captured only in partHow it's made

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5 outletsLatest reporting 3 min read
Coverage: Center OnlyL 0 · C 3 · R 0 · 2 unrated
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Photo: Dillan Payne / Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 4.0)

What happened

Key facts

  • Surveys published before Toronto’s mayoral vote suggested the race between Olivia Chow and Brad Bradford was too close to call (per The Globe and Mail, canadianinquirer.net).
  • Pollster David Valentin of Liaison Strategies said turnout, particularly among downtown residents, could determine the result (per The Globe and Mail).
  • Bradford has served on Toronto city council since 2018 (per The Globe and Mail).
  • If Bradford wins, Chow would become the first incumbent Toronto mayor to lose since the city’s 1998 amalgamation (per The Globe and Mail).

The brief

Surveys published before Toronto’s mayoral vote suggested Olivia Chow and Brad Bradford were in a race too close to call, making turnout a central factor in the contest. Pollster David Valentin of Liaison Strategies said the result could depend on which campaign gets its supporters to the polls, particularly downtown.

Valentin said downtown residents have been more likely to vote and to support Chow in recent years. That pattern makes turnout in the area important to the incumbent’s prospects, while the overall survey picture left the outcome uncertain. The account does not provide survey figures for Chow or Bradford.

Bradford’s door-knocking campaign is competing with Chow’s get-out-the-vote operation, which Valentin described as traditionally strong. His comments place the focus on campaign organization as well as voter preference: a close contest can turn on which side succeeds in mobilizing supporters, especially in the downtown electorate identified by the pollster.

Bradford has served on Toronto city council since 2018. He received 1.28 per cent in his first mayoral bid three years earlier, according to The Globe and Mail. The current race is therefore a markedly different electoral contest for him, though the account’s central point is that surveys have not established a clear leader. The election was scheduled for Monday, October 26.

A headline from Liaison Strategies’ website gives a poll result of 52 per cent for Chow and 44 per cent for Bradford; separate headlines from Global News and CityNews also describe Chow as leading, with CityNews specifying a five-point margin. Those headline figures do not alter the article’s broader description of the surveys as showing a close race.

The stakes include a possible break with Toronto’s mayoral record: if Bradford wins, Chow would become the first incumbent mayor to lose since the city’s 1998 amalgamation. The article presents that outcome as conditional, not as a forecast.

Valentin’s assessment instead emphasizes the turnout contest between Bradford’s door-knocking and Chow’s established voter-mobilization operation.

Why it matters

  • Toronto voters bear the direct consequence of the contest through the choice between incumbent Olivia Chow and challenger Brad Bradford; the article identifies turnout, particularly downtown, as a mechanism that could shape the result.
  • Downtown residents matter electorally because they have been more likely to vote and support Chow in recent years, according to the account.
  • The campaigns have a documented competing interest in mobilizing voters: Bradford is door-knocking while Chow has a traditionally strong get-out-the-vote operation.
  • A Bradford win would make Chow the first incumbent Toronto mayor to lose since the city’s 1998 amalgamation.

What to watch next

  • Whether downtown turnout follows the voting pattern David Valentin described.
  • Whether Bradford’s door-knocking effort mobilizes voters against Chow’s get-out-the-vote operation.
  • The Toronto mayoral vote scheduled for Monday, October 26.
  • Whether Bradford wins, which would make Chow the first incumbent Toronto mayor to lose since the city’s 1998 amalgamation.

How it's being covered

Coverage analysisShow details
5 source articles · 5 unique outlets
Outlet political mix: Center Only· 3 Center · 2 unrated
Where the outlets are based: Unknown 60% · US/Canada 40%
Outlet political mix
Center Only
Left
Center
Right
0 outlets
3 outlets
0 outlets
The marker shows coverage balance: each unique outlet counts once. 2 unrated outlets are not included.
Geography
Where the outlets covering this story are based.
5 unique outletsDominant coverage: US/Canada
Coverage imbalance
  • Coverage is currently concentrated among Center-rated outlets (3 of 3 rated sources); comparatively few Left or Right-rated outlets have published on the event.
How we measure coverage

How outlets' accounts compare

Updat3 does not yet have enough full reports to compare how outlets framed this story.

Timeline

Developments from this story's sources, dated background we compiled and fact-checked, and our earlier coverage. Each row says which.
  1. Toronto’s unified city government began operating.
    Background · compiled and fact-checked by Updat3
  2. Brad Bradford won election to Toronto city council for Beaches–East York.
    Background · compiled and fact-checked by Updat3
  3. Brad Bradford won re-election to Toronto city council.
    Background · compiled and fact-checked by Updat3
  4. John Tory announced he would resign as Toronto mayor.
    Background · compiled and fact-checked by Updat3
  5. Olivia Chow won Toronto’s mayoral byelection with about 37 per cent of the vote; Brad Bradford finished eighth.
    Background · compiled and fact-checked by Updat3
  6. Olivia Chow took office as Toronto mayor.
    Background · compiled and fact-checked by Updat3
  7. A Canada Pulse Insights poll for CityNews put Chow 17 percentage points ahead of Bradford among decided or leaning Toronto voters.
    Background · compiled and fact-checked by Updat3

How we got here

Olivia Chow won Toronto’s June 26, 2023, mayoral by-election with about 37 per cent of the vote, succeeding John Tory, who resigned in February 2023. Brad Bradford also ran in that by-election and finished fourth; he had first won a seat on Toronto City Council in 2018 and was re-elected in 2022.

The 2023 result followed Tory’s 2022 re-election, when he won a third term, and his February 2023 resignation created the vacancy that led to the by-election. Toronto’s mayoral contests take place within a city government created by the 1998 amalgamation of the former City of Toronto and five surrounding municipalities into a single municipality.

Original sources

2 of 5 articles · US/Canada · Show all

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