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Health · Europe

UK confidence index drops 11 points in October

The GfK Consumer Confidence Barometer fell 11 points in October, from -13 in September to -24, its sharpest monthly decline since the early months of the Covid pandemic. The index measuring willingness to make major purchases dropped 14 points to -22, its lowest reading in more than two years.

AI-assisted synthesis · Based on 5 outlets' reporting · Article text read from 1 of 5 outletsHow it's made

View timeline · 9 entries
5 outlets2 regionsLatest reporting 3 min read
Coverage: MixedL 1 · C 3 · R 1
Updat3 graphic: United Kingdom
Updat3 graphic · Map data: Natural Earth Natural Earth (public domain)

What happened

Key facts

  • UK consumer confidence fell to -24 in October, with the decline described as the largest since the Covid pandemic (per retailgazette.co.uk).
  • The major-purchase index fell 14 points to -22, its lowest reading in more than two years (per retailgazette.co.uk).
  • Expectations for the wider economy over the next 12 months fell 14 points to -36 (per retailgazette.co.uk).
  • The article said confidence weakened across income, age and gender groups (per retailgazette.co.uk).

The brief

The GfK Consumer Confidence Barometer fell 11 points in October to -24, down from -13 in September. Retail Gazette described the drop as the sharpest monthly fall since the early months of the Covid pandemic. The Wall Street Journal headline also characterized the movement as the biggest decline since the pandemic. The fall extended across the survey’s measures. The index for consumers’ willingness to make major purchases dropped 14 points to -22, which Retail Gazette said was its lowest level in more than two years. Expectations for the wider economy over the coming 12 months also fell 14 points, reaching -36. Retail Gazette linked the decline to rising household costs, citing soaring energy and fuel prices and inflation of 3.5 per cent. It also placed the figures in the context of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. The article did not provide further detail on how those factors affected individual households. The outlet said confidence weakened across income, age and gender groups. It warned that the fall in confidence raised concerns about shoppers’ willingness to spend on non-essential purchases during the Golden Quarter. The article also described the deterioration as a concern given the government’s focus on economic growth. Outside the pandemic period, Retail Gazette identified July 2016, after the Brexit referendum, as the most recent occasion when a decline of comparable size occurred. The Retail Bulletin headline separately described consumer confidence as falling at its fastest pace since the Brexit vote when Covid is excluded. The Guardian headline characterized the drop as the fastest since Covid and referred to cost-of-living pressures; the Financial Times headline called those pressures “relentless.”

The reported index readings point to a broad deterioration in sentiment, including lower assessments of major purchases and the economic outlook. The account ties that deterioration to household costs and raises the possibility of weaker discretionary spending during the Golden Quarter, but gives no spending totals or separate measures for different consumer groups. The figures reported are survey readings rather than a measure of actual household expenditure.

Why it matters

  • UK households face the specific cost pressures cited by Retail Gazette: rising energy and fuel costs and inflation of 3.5 per cent.
  • The 14-point fall in the major-purchase index to -22 raises concerns about consumers’ willingness to make discretionary purchases during the Golden Quarter.
  • Economic expectations for the next 12 months fell 14 points to -36, while confidence weakened across income, age and gender groups.

What to watch next

  • Whether the GfK major-purchase index changes from its October reading of -22.
  • Whether the GfK measure of expectations for the wider economy changes from -36 over the next 12 months.
  • Whether shoppers’ discretionary spending during the Golden Quarter reflects the concern raised by the confidence decline.

How it's being covered

Coverage analysisShow details
5 source articles · 5 unique outlets
Outlet political mix: Mixed· 1 Left · 3 Center · 1 Right
Where the outlets are based: Europe 80% · US/Canada 20%
Outlet political mix
Mixed
Left
Center
Right
1 outlet
3 outlets
1 outlet
The marker shows coverage balance: each unique outlet counts once.
Geography
Where the outlets covering this story are based.
5 unique outletsDominant coverage: Europe
Coverage imbalance
  • Coverage is currently concentrated among outlets based in Europe (4 of 5 geographically-identified sources).
How we measure coverage

How outlets' accounts compare

Updat3 does not yet have enough full reports to compare how outlets framed this story.

Timeline

Developments from this story's sources, dated background we compiled and fact-checked, and our earlier coverage. Each row says which.
  1. GfK’s UK Consumer Confidence Barometer began in 1974 and tracks households’ views of their finances and the wider economy, as well as willingness to make major purchases.
    Background · from our historical context
  2. The UK held its referendum on membership of the European Union.
    Background · compiled and fact-checked by Updat3
  3. The latest comparable shock to British household confidence came during the Covid-19 pandemic: after the UK’s first national lockdown began on 23 March 2020, restrictions disrupted work, shopping and travel.
    Background · from our historical context
  4. The longer-running pressure on household budgets intensified after UK inflation accelerated in 2021.
    Background · from our historical context
  5. The Bank of England raised Bank Rate for the first time since the start of the Covid pandemic, to 0.25%.
    Background · compiled and fact-checked by Updat3
  6. Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
    Background · compiled and fact-checked by Updat3
  7. The government introduced the Energy Price Guarantee on 1 October 2022 to limit household energy bills.
    Background · from our historical context
  8. The Bank of England raised Bank Rate to 5.25%.
    Background · compiled and fact-checked by Updat3
  9. The Bank of England cut Bank Rate to 4.5%.
    Background · compiled and fact-checked by Updat3

How we got here

The latest comparable shock to British household confidence came during the Covid-19 pandemic: after the UK’s first national lockdown began on 23 March 2020, restrictions disrupted work, shopping and travel. The earlier 2016 Brexit referendum also preceded a sharp fall in the GfK confidence measure, making both episodes reference points for later declines.

The longer-running pressure on household budgets intensified after UK inflation accelerated in 2021. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022 was followed by further disruption to energy and food markets; the Office for National Statistics recorded annual UK consumer-price inflation at 11.1% in October 2022, its highest rate since 1981.

Original sources

1 of 5 articles · US/Canada · Show all

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