Ukraine’s refinery strikes show no apparent effect on US diesel prices

Ukraine’s strikes on six Russian oil refineries over several days in November 2025 showed no apparent effect on US diesel prices, according to an analysis by the Institute for the Study of War cited by the New York Post. The chart discussed in the report instead showed US diesel prices dipping slightly during the period of the strikes.

The analysis, as described by the New York Post, covers US diesel prices from August 2025 onward. Prices remained below $4 a gallon until shortly after the United States and Israel launched a joint attack on Iran on Feb. 28, the outlet reported. The article also said the chart recorded a peak of $6.53 per gallon on Sept. 21.

Those figures describe the price pattern in the chart; the report’s stated conclusion about the refinery strikes is that they did not appear to move US prices. The New York Post links the price increase in its account to the period following the US-Israeli attack on Iran, and says Iran then closed the Strait of Hormuz, a major shipping route.

The outlet presents that sequence alongside the diesel-price chart. The documented findings about the November refinery strikes remain distinct: prices initially edged down during the strikes, and the Institute for the Study of War analysis found no apparent effect on US diesel prices.

Other coverage reflects a separate dispute over claims concerning Russian diesel and refinery attacks.

The New Voice of Ukraine headline says Ukrainian energy official Kudrytskyi called Donald Trump’s claims on those subjects “absolute nonsense.” That headline establishes Kudrytskyi’s criticism, but does not provide the substance of Trump’s claims or the official’s supporting argument.

The New York Post also reports that the Russian Defense Ministry said Ukraine had attempted a large-scale attack on the Ryazan oil refinery. That is the ministry’s account of an attempted attack, not independent confirmation in the reporting.

The New York Post’s account of six refineries struck in November 2025 and the ministry’s statement about Ryazan describe different claims; the article does not establish that they refer to the same incident. Distilled Post and Seeking Alpha headlines both say Ukraine resumed strikes on Russian refineries.

Seeking Alpha’s headline also says Volodymyr Zelenskyy criticized US policy on Russia as “dangerous.” Those headlines add evidence that the resumed-strikes issue and US policy criticism were being reported, but they do not provide further detail about the timing, targets, damage or any effect on fuel prices.

For US diesel consumers, the specific evidence highlighted in the Institute for the Study of War analysis is a lack of an apparent price effect during the November 2025 refinery strikes, alongside an initial slight decline. The reporting does not establish the mechanism behind the later price increase or quantify how any particular event contributed to it.

The distinction matters: the chart’s price movements and the analysis’s conclusion about the strikes are documented, while broader causal claims require evidence beyond the reported comparison.