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Global emissions flatten in 2025, but the climate crisis remains

UN Climate Change says the latest national climate pledges would reduce global greenhouse-gas emissions by 6% by 2035. The agency says that is far below the roughly 60% reduction from 2019 levels scientists say is needed to limit warming to 1.5°C.

AI-assisted synthesis · Based on 4 outlets' reporting · Article text read from 2 of 4 outletsHow it's made

View timeline · 8 entries
4 outletsLatest reporting 3 min read
Coverage: Too few ratedL 0 · C 1 · R 0 · 3 unrated
Updat3 graphic: United States
Updat3 graphic · Map data: Natural Earth Natural Earth (public domain)

What happened

Key facts

  • UN Climate Change said nations' latest pledges would cut global greenhouse-gas emissions 6% by 2035.
  • If countries fully implement their plans and meet conditional targets, the emissions cut would be 9%.
  • The United Nations Environment Programme said global commitments put the world on course for 2.6°C of warming this century.
  • Scientists say a roughly 60% reduction from 2019 levels is needed to limit warming to 1.5°C.
  • The UN estimated a 10% cut by 2035 last year, before many pledges had arrived and before the United States was removed from the calculation.
  • The article says the United States has left the Paris Agreement for a second time under President Donald Trump and is pursuing policies that favour fossil fuels.

The brief

UN Climate Change says the latest national climate pledges would cut global greenhouse-gas emissions by 6% by 2035. That projection remains far short of the roughly 60% reduction from 2019 levels scientists say is needed to limit warming to 1.5°C, according to the report summarized by CNA.

The report also gives a higher-cut scenario: emissions would fall by 9% if countries fully implemented their plans and achieved conditional targets. The 6% figure describes the pledges as assessed, while the larger figure depends on full delivery of those plans and targets.

The UN Climate Change assessment synthesizes national climate pledges from 154 countries received between January 2024 and August 2026. Those submissions cover 71% of global emissions.

The agency estimated last year that pledges would cut emissions by 10% by 2035; CNA reports that the earlier calculation came before many pledges arrived and before the United States was excluded from the tally. The findings come ahead of COP31 talks in Türkiye. UN climate chief Simon Stiell said the meeting could use practical measures to help close gaps in implementation.

His statement points to carrying out existing commitments as one route for addressing the shortfall; the report's conditional-target scenario illustrates how full delivery would change the projected reduction. Other climate indicators in the coverage provide context but are separate from the pledge calculation.

The World Meteorological Organization says 2015–2025 were the 11 warmest years on record, with 2025 ranking as the second- or third-warmest year depending on the dataset. The United Nations Environment Programme assessment cited by theunitedindian.com says current policies could lead to around 2.8°C of warming this century.

Theunitedindian.com also describes a UNEP “lowest possible” overshoot scenario: warming could peak around 1.7–1.8°C near the middle of the century, then return to or below 1.5°C by 2100, with about a 50% chance.

That scenario is not the same measure as the 6% emissions cut in the UN Climate Change pledge assessment, but it illustrates a possible temperature pathway distinct from the outcome under current policies.

Why it matters

  • The emissions-reduction stakes are quantified: the pledges project a 6% cut by 2035, while scientists say roughly 60% from 2019 levels is needed to limit warming to 1.5°C.
  • The 9% scenario depends on countries fully implementing their plans and meeting conditional targets, making follow-through a direct factor in the projected emissions reduction.
  • The assessment covers submissions from 154 countries representing 71% of global emissions, so the reported projection concerns a substantial but not complete share of global emissions.
  • The UNEP-based estimate cited in the coverage puts warming at around 2.8°C this century under current policies, while its lowest-possible overshoot scenario gives about a 50% chance of returning to or below 1.5°C by 2100.

What to watch next

  • Whether COP31 talks in Türkiye take up the practical implementation measures UN climate chief Simon Stiell said could address gaps.
  • Whether countries fully implement their national plans and meet conditional targets, the conditions behind the report's 9% emissions-cut scenario.
  • How the 2035 pledge projection is assessed against the roughly 60% reduction from 2019 levels scientists say is needed to limit warming to 1.5°C.

How it's being covered

Coverage analysisShow details
4 source articles · 4 unique outlets
Outlet political mix: Too few rated· 1 Center · 3 unrated
Where the outlets are based: Unknown 75% · Asia 25%
Outlet political mix
Too few rated
Left
Center
Right
0 outlets
1 outlet
0 outlets
The marker shows coverage balance: each unique outlet counts once. 3 unrated outlets are not included.
Geography
Where the outlets covering this story are based.
4 unique outletsDominant coverage: Asia
Coverage imbalance
  • Coverage is currently concentrated among outlets based in Unknown (3 of 4 geographically-identified sources).
How we measure coverage

How outlets' accounts compare

1 framing difference · 1 uncorroborated claim · 1 information gap
The reports repeat the same account with different emphasis; its central claims are not independently confirmed in the reporting Updat3 read.Compared across 2 reports whose article text Updat3 read; 2 other outlets were checked by headline only.
Framing / emphasis differences
Sources emphasise different angles, actors or consequences of the same reporting.
  • CNA centers the UN Climate Change estimate of a 6% emissions cut by 2035 and contrasts it with the roughly 60% reduction scientists say is needed; theunitedindian.com focuses on UNEP temperature pathways, including a possible overshoot and return to 1.5°C.
Updat3: These are differences of emphasis, not disputes about what is reported. They do not show that the reported claims are true.
One-sided or uncorroborated claims
Claims that come from one party or one source family and are not independently corroborated.
  • Simon Stiell said COP31 could help address implementation gaps through practical measures.
Updat3: Not independently corroborated yet — treat as a claim, not an established fact.
Not established by the reporting
Information the available reporting does not contain or confirm. This is a gap, not a disagreement.
  • The sources do not give country-by-country pledge figures or identify which governments account for the gap between submitted pledges and the reduction scientists say is needed.
Updat3: Updat3 cannot conclude anything about this from the current sources.

Timeline

Developments from this story's sources, dated background we compiled and fact-checked, and our earlier coverage. Each row says which.
  1. Countries adopted the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change.
    Background · compiled and fact-checked by Updat3
  2. Countries adopted the Kyoto Protocol, setting emissions-reduction targets for developed countries.
    Background · compiled and fact-checked by Updat3
  3. The United States signed but never ratified Kyoto, while Canada withdrew in 2011.
    Background · from our historical context
  4. The Paris Agreement, adopted on 12 December 2015 at the UN climate conference in Paris, established the current system.
    Background · from our historical context
  5. The United States’ withdrawal from the Paris Agreement took effect.
    Background · compiled and fact-checked by Updat3
  6. The United States rejoined the Paris Agreement.
    Background · compiled and fact-checked by Updat3
  7. The United States notified the United Nations that it would withdraw from the Paris Agreement.
    Background · compiled and fact-checked by Updat3
  8. The United States’ second withdrawal from the Paris Agreement took effect.
    Background · compiled and fact-checked by Updat3

How we got here

The immediate backdrop was the Paris Agreement’s five-year cycle for stronger national climate plans: countries were expected to submit new or updated pledges in 2025, with targets extending to 2035. The Paris Agreement, adopted on 12 December 2015 at the UN climate conference in Paris, established the current system.

Its signatories agreed to hold the rise in global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5°C.

Original sources

4 articles from 4 outlets

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