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United lowers 2026 profit forecast as fuel costs bite

United Airlines said it expects adjusted fourth-quarter earnings of 50 cents to $1.50 a share, below the $1.76 analysts expected. The airline also reported that revenue for the quarter ended Sept. 30 rose 17.4% year over year to $17.88 billion.

AI-assisted synthesis · Based on 5 independent reports from 6 outlets · Article text read from 1 of 5 reportsHow it's made

View timeline · 5 entries
6 outlets2 regionsLatest reporting 2 min read
Coverage: Center OnlyL 0 · C 4 · R 0 · 2 unrated

What happened

Key facts

  • United said it expects adjusted fourth-quarter earnings of 50 cents to $1.50 a share, compared with analysts' expectation of $1.76 a share (per thecityweekly.com.au).
  • In mid-July, United said it expected full-year earnings of $9 to $11 a share (per thecityweekly.com.au).
  • United reported revenue of $17.88 billion for the quarter ended Sept. 30, up 17.4% from $15.23 billion a year earlier (per thecityweekly.com.au).
  • United CEO Scott Kirby credited employees with meeting challenges in a changing environment and said the results reflected a focus on building customer brand loyalty (per thecityweekly.com.au).
  • MENAFN's headline says fuel costs surged 23 percent (per menafn.com, thecityweekly.com.au).

The brief

United Airlines cut its 2026 profit outlook as fuel costs continued to weigh on the carrier, while its chief executive said passengers were still booking, according to TheCityWeekly. The outlet reported that the airline expects adjusted fourth-quarter earnings of 50 cents to $1.50 a share, below the $1.76 a share Wall Street analysts expected.

The updated forecast follows United’s earlier full-year projection. TheCityWeekly reported that in mid-July the airline had expected earnings of $9 to $11 a share for the year. Its current fourth-quarter estimate is stated on an adjusted basis; the account does not give a replacement full-year earnings range. The outlet also reported growth in quarterly revenue.

For the three months ended Sept. 30, United recorded $17.88 billion, a 17.4% increase from $15.23 billion in the same quarter a year earlier. The account identifies the quarter’s revenue figures but does not provide corresponding operating costs or a profit figure for that period.

United CEO Scott Kirby said in an earnings release that employees had met challenges in a changing environment. He also credited the company’s results to its focus on building customer brand loyalty. TheCityWeekly’s account says passengers continued to book despite the pressure from fuel costs; CNBC’s headline likewise says travelers kept booking despite higher fares.

The outlet’s headline and report center on fuel costs as the pressure behind the lower forecast. MENAFN’s headline adds a specific figure, saying fuel costs surged 23 percent, while Skift’s headline says jet fuel costs rose. Investing.com’s headline characterizes the outlook as an earnings test as fuel costs squeeze margins.

Those headlines do not provide additional detail about United’s financial calculations. The earnings outlook is the clearest forward-looking figure in the account: United’s adjusted fourth-quarter range is below the analyst expectation cited by TheCityWeekly.

The reported revenue increase and continued bookings provide separate indicators of the business, but the account does not quantify bookings or fares. It also does not state whether United changed its full-year forecast beyond the mid-July range or identify a new full-year target.

Why it matters

  • United faces a lower adjusted fourth-quarter earnings range of 50 cents to $1.50 a share than the $1.76 analysts expected.
  • Fuel costs are the stated pressure on United’s profit outlook; MENAFN’s headline puts the increase at 23 percent.
  • United reported quarterly revenue of $17.88 billion, up 17.4% year over year, while its account says passengers continued booking.

What to watch next

  • Whether United provides a revised full-year earnings range beyond the $9-to-$11-a-share forecast it gave in mid-July.
  • Whether United’s adjusted fourth-quarter earnings fall within the 50-cent-to-$1.50-a-share range it forecast.
  • Whether United continues to report passenger bookings despite higher fares, as stated in CNBC’s headline.

How it's being covered

Coverage analysisShow details
6 source articles · 6 unique outlets · 5 distinct reports
Outlet political mix: Center Only· 4 Center · 2 unrated
Where the outlets are based: US/Canada 33% · Unknown 33% · Other 34%
Outlet political mix
Center Only
Left
Center
Right
0 outlets
4 outlets
0 outlets
The marker shows coverage balance: each unique outlet counts once. 2 unrated outlets are not included.
Geography
Where the outlets covering this story are based.
6 unique outletsDominant coverage: US/Canada
Coverage imbalance
  • Coverage is currently concentrated among Center-rated outlets (4 of 4 rated sources); comparatively few Left or Right-rated outlets have published on the event.
How we measure coverage

How outlets' accounts compare

Updat3 does not yet have enough full reports to compare how outlets framed this story.

Timeline

Developments from this story's sources, dated background we compiled and fact-checked, and our earlier coverage. Each row says which.
  1. Varney Air Lines was founded.
    Background · compiled and fact-checked by Updat3
  2. The United Airlines name emerged.
    Background · compiled and fact-checked by Updat3
  3. United’s modern corporate structure took shape in 2010, when United Airlines and Continental Airlines completed a merger, creating the airline now known as United Airlines Holdings.
    Background · from our historical context
  4. The United States and Israel launched coordinated strikes across Iran.
    Background · compiled and fact-checked by Updat3
  5. In mid-July 2026, United Airlines told investors it expected full-year earnings of $9 to $11 per share, setting the forecast against which later changes could be assessed.
    Background · from our historical context

How we got here

In mid-July 2026, United Airlines told investors it expected full-year earnings of $9 to $11 per share, setting the forecast against which later changes could be assessed. United’s modern corporate structure took shape in 2010, when United Airlines and Continental Airlines completed a merger, creating the airline now known as United Airlines Holdings.

The wider US airline business changed under the Airline Deregulation Act, signed by President Jimmy Carter on October 24, 1978, which ended federal control over routes and fares and opened the industry to greater price competition.

Original sources

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