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Possible Super El Niño threatens Indian crops as food costs rise

Business Connect India warns that a possible Super El Niño in 2026 could threaten Indian crops, while the Sydney Morning Herald reports a weak monsoon is expected to reduce India’s rice output by almost 5 per cent. The reported pressures also include higher global food prices and rising costs for Indian farmers’ fertiliser, diesel and electricity.

AI-assisted synthesis · Based on 4 outlets' reporting · Article text read from 2 of 4 outlets · 1 article captured only in partHow it's made

View timeline · 8 entries
4 outletsLatest reporting 4 min read
Coverage: Mostly CenterL 0 · C 2 · R 1 · 1 unrated
Updat3 graphic: India
Updat3 graphic · Map data: Natural Earth Natural Earth (public domain)

What happened

Key facts

  • Business Connect India says a possible Super El Niño in 2026 could threaten crops in India, and The Sunday Guardian headline describes a Super El Niño as threatening global food supplies (per businessconnectindia.in).
  • The Sydney Morning Herald reports global rice prices have risen by 63 per cent since February.
  • The Sydney Morning Herald reports that Arabica coffee prices have risen by 29 per cent since June and Brent crude is nearly US$110 a barrel (per The Sydney Morning Herald).
  • Business Connect India says higher fertiliser, diesel and electricity costs could affect Indian farmers, alongside changing grain prices (per businessconnectindia.in).
  • Business Connect India says S. Jaishankar has warned about global food-crisis risks at international forums, including the Asia Society and the United Nations General Assembly (per businessconnectindia.in).

The brief

A weak monsoon is expected to cut India’s rice output by almost 5 per cent, while a possible Super El Niño in 2026 adds another climate risk to crops and food supplies. Business Connect India raises the possibility of the weather pattern threatening Indian crops; The Sunday Guardian headline also frames the potential El Niño as a danger to global food supplies.

The Sydney Morning Herald reports that India’s rice exports are expected to fall 4 per cent in the coming year. The country accounts for 40 per cent of global rice trade, making the forecast decline relevant to both Indian farmers and international buyers.

The report links the projected reduction in output to a weak monsoon, while the Super El Niño risk is a separate concern raised by Business Connect India. Prices have already climbed across several food commodities, according to the Sydney Morning Herald.

Global rice prices are up 63 per cent since February; wheat has risen 31 per cent, canola 30 per cent, soybeans 24 per cent and corn 12 per cent. Oats and sugar are each up by more than 30 per cent. Arabica coffee prices have risen 29 per cent since June.

Business Connect India also points to rising input expenses for Indian farmers, saying fertiliser, diesel and electricity costs could increase as grain prices change. These costs matter at the farm level: higher outlays can add to the financial pressure on cultivators even as weather threatens crop yields. The report does not quantify the projected changes in those input costs.

Trade disruption is another pressure in Business Connect India’s account. It says the Russia-Ukraine war has increased risks to grain shipments through the Black Sea, and that disruption to ports, ships, insurance arrangements and export operations can redirect demand and push international prices higher.

The article connects that risk to global food markets, rather than documenting a specific effect on Indian shipments. The Sydney Morning Herald places energy costs alongside rising commodity prices, reporting that Brent crude is nearly US$110 a barrel.

Business Connect India separately warns that higher diesel and electricity expenses could add to Indian farmers’ costs; together, these are relevant pressures on agricultural production and food supply, though the sources do not quantify their combined effect. S.

Jaishankar has warned about global food-crisis risks at international forums, including the Asia Society and the United Nations General Assembly, Business Connect India says. The reporting leaves Indian crop yields, export volumes and farm input costs exposed to uncertainty from the weak monsoon, the possible Super El Niño and trade and energy-market pressures.

Why it matters

  • Indian farmers face the specific cost mechanism of potentially higher fertiliser, diesel and electricity expenses alongside changing grain prices.
  • Indian rice production is forecast to fall almost 5 per cent because of a weak monsoon, while exports are expected to decline 4 per cent in the coming year.
  • India’s 40 per cent share of global rice trade means a forecast export decline could tighten supply for international rice buyers.
  • The reported 63 per cent rise in global rice prices and increases across wheat, canola, soybeans, corn, oats and sugar show the price pressures confronting food purchasers.

What to watch next

  • Whether the possible Super El Niño develops and affects Indian crops, a risk raised by Business Connect India and The Sunday Guardian headline.
  • Whether India’s rice output falls almost 5 per cent, as forecast in the Sydney Morning Herald’s account of the weak monsoon.
  • Whether India’s rice exports decline by the expected 4 per cent in the coming year.
  • Whether fertiliser, diesel and electricity costs for Indian farmers rise, as Business Connect India warns they could.

How it's being covered

Coverage analysisShow details
4 source articles · 4 unique outlets
Outlet political mix: Mostly Center· 2 Center · 1 Right · 1 unrated
Where the outlets are based: Asia 100%
Outlet political mix
Mostly Center
Left
Center
Right
0 outlets
2 outlets
1 outlet
The marker shows coverage balance: each unique outlet counts once. 1 unrated outlet is not included.
Geography
Where the outlets covering this story are based.
4 unique outletsDominant coverage: Asia
Coverage imbalance
  • Coverage is currently concentrated among outlets based in Asia (4 of 4 geographically-identified sources).
How we measure coverage

How outlets' accounts compare

2 framing differences · 1 uncorroborated claim · 3 information gaps
The reports repeat the same account with different emphasis; its central claims are not independently confirmed in the reporting Updat3 read.Compared across 2 reports whose article text Updat3 read; 2 other outlets were checked by headline only.
Framing / emphasis differences
Sources emphasise different angles, actors or consequences of the same reporting.
  • Business Connect India emphasizes the possible Super El Niño alongside Black Sea grain-trade disruption and rising farm-input costs; the Sydney Morning Herald emphasizes current commodity-price increases and forecasts for Indian rice output and exports.
  • The Sunday Guardian headline frames the possible Super El Niño as a threat to global food supplies, while Business Connect India specifically raises the risk to Indian crops.
Updat3: These are differences of emphasis, not disputes about what is reported. They do not show that the reported claims are true.
One-sided or uncorroborated claims
Claims that come from one party or one source family and are not independently corroborated.
  • Business Connect India says S. Jaishankar has warned about global food-crisis risks at the Asia Society and the United Nations General Assembly.
Updat3: Not independently corroborated yet — treat as a claim, not an established fact.
Not established by the reporting
Information the available reporting does not contain or confirm. This is a gap, not a disagreement.
  • The sources do not quantify how much a Super El Niño would reduce Indian crop yields or food supplies.
  • The sources do not provide a specific forecast for changes in Indian farmers’ fertiliser, diesel or electricity costs.
  • The possible Super El Niño’s eventual strength and its effects on Indian crops are presented as risks, not established outcomes.
Updat3: Updat3 cannot conclude anything about this from the current sources.

Timeline

Developments from this story's sources, dated background we compiled and fact-checked, and our earlier coverage. Each row says which.
  1. The Food Corporation of India was established in 1965 to procure, store and distribute grain, and the Green Revolution expanded high-yield wheat and rice production from the mid-1960s.
    Background · from our historical context
  2. A severe El Niño developed in the Pacific.
    Background · compiled and fact-checked by Updat3
  3. Parliament enacted the National Food Security Act in 2013, establishing subsidised grain entitlements for eligible households.
    Background · from our historical context
  4. In 2020, the World Meteorological Organization identified El Niño and La Niña as major influences on seasonal climate risks, while noting that their effects vary by region.
    Background · from our historical context
  5. Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, and the resulting war disrupted trade through the Black Sea, a major route for Ukrainian agricultural exports.
    Background · from our historical context
  6. On July 22, 2022, Ukraine, Russia, Türkiye and the United Nations signed the Black Sea Grain Initiative, which enabled designated Ukrainian ports to resume grain shipments.
    Background · from our historical context
  7. Russia announced its withdrawal from the initiative on July 17, 2023; the UN reported that the agreement ended the following day.
    Background · from our historical context
  8. By June 22, 2026, India’s reported fertiliser stocks stood at approximately 19.6 million tonnes, a dated measure of the country’s preparations for farm demand.
    Background · from our historical context

How we got here

India’s exposure to El Niño-related crop losses has a documented precedent: during the 2015–16 El Niño, India recorded below-average monsoon rainfall in both 2015 and 2016, and the India Meteorological Department declared 2015 a drought year.

The episode followed another severe El Niño in 1997–98; such events are part of the recurring climate pattern monitored through changes in Pacific Ocean temperatures and atmospheric circulation. In 2020, the World Meteorological Organization identified El Niño and La Niña as major influences on seasonal climate risks, while noting that their effects vary by region.

Original sources

4 articles from 4 outlets · Asia · Show all

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