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Politics · Middle East

Israel exit polls put Netanyahu bloc short of a majority

Exit polls from three Israeli broadcasters projected Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc at about 50 seats, while Gadi Eisenkot’s opposition bloc was projected at 52 to 53. Neither bloc was projected to reach the 61 seats needed for a Knesset majority, and vote counting began after polling stations closed.

AI-assisted synthesis · Based on 8 outlets' reporting · Article text read from 4 of 8 outletsHow it's made

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This story was corrected on Oct 28, 2026 following an editorial review.
8 outlets3 regionsLatest reporting 4 min read
Coverage: Center OnlyL 0 · C 5 · R 0 · 3 unrated
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Photo: Avi Ohayon / Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 3.0)

What happened

Key facts

  • With 48.4% of votes counted, Netanyahu’s bloc was projected to win 55 seats, Eisenkot’s 50 and Arab parties’ 15, according to Israeli media.
  • Neither bloc reached the 61 seats needed for a majority in the 120-seat Knesset.
  • Israel’s Central Elections Committee was counting votes, and definitive results were expected after further counting.
  • Netanyahu called for a “strong, right-wing national government” at Likud election headquarters in Jerusalem.
  • Netanyahu said Israel had an opportunity, alongside President Trump, to remove what he called the existential threat of Iran.
  • Eisenkot, leader of Yashar and a former military chief, said voters had rejected Netanyahu and had all but ruled out forming a government with Arab parties.
  • A deadlock could leave Netanyahu as caretaker prime minister during coalition negotiations or until another election.
  • The coalition’s projected total is below the 61 seats required for a Knesset majority.

The brief

Exit polls from Israeli television networks left both Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc and the opposition led by Gadi Eisenkot short of the seats needed to form a Knesset majority. Three broadcasters projected Netanyahu’s bloc at about 50 seats and Eisenkot’s at 52 to 53; the threshold is 61. The seat estimates are not final results.

Israel’s Central Elections Committee said polling stations had closed and vote counting was beginning. One separate estimate reported by Israeli media, based on 48.4% of votes counted, put Netanyahu’s bloc at 55 seats, Eisenkot’s at 50 and Arab parties at 15.

That partial-count projection differs from the broadcaster exit-poll figures; both are provisional measures rather than a confirmed final allocation. Arab parties were projected to hold 17 to 18 seats in the broadcaster estimates, while the partial-count estimate gave them 15. The opposition would need support from Arab parties to reach a majority, according to Türkiye Today.

But Netanyahu’s rival Eisenkot said he had all but ruled out forming a government with those parties, according to The Standard. Netanyahu called for a “strong, right-wing national government” while speaking at Likud election headquarters in Jerusalem.

He also said Israel had an opportunity, alongside President Trump, to remove what Netanyahu described as the existential threat of Iran. That characterization was Netanyahu’s claim; the election projections themselves did not resolve the composition of a future government.

Eisenkot, a former military chief and leader of Yashar, said voters had rejected Netanyahu, according to The Standard. Türkiye Today reported a separate statement from Eisenkot: if the projections proved final, he would work to replace the Netanyahu government and establish what he called a Zionist mobilization government.

His stated plan and his rejection of a coalition with Arab parties leave the role of those parties in any potential governing arrangement uncertain. The outlets emphasized different parts of the same unsettled count.

The Standard reported an early estimate with Netanyahu’s bloc ahead at 55 to Eisenkot’s 50, while Türkiye Today, The Sydney Morning Herald and Telangana Tribune highlighted exit-poll projections placing Eisenkot’s bloc slightly ahead.

The Sydney Morning Herald also reported that Netanyahu’s Likud remained the largest individual party, with about 27 seats; that does not by itself determine which bloc can assemble a majority. The election was Israel’s first national vote since the Hamas-led attack of October 7, 2023, according to The Standard and Telangana Tribune.

The immediate next step is the official count by the Central Elections Committee; until those results settle the seat totals, neither the exit polls nor the partial-count projection establishes who can form a government.

Why it matters

  • Israel’s voters face an unresolved governing outcome: the two main blocs were projected below the 61-seat majority threshold, so the provisional numbers do not establish which bloc can govern.
  • Arab parties were projected to hold 17 to 18 seats in broadcaster polls, but Eisenkot said he had nearly ruled out forming a government with them, creating a specific obstacle to an opposition majority.
  • The Central Elections Committee’s count will determine whether the exit-poll estimates or the separate partial-count projection—55 seats for Netanyahu’s bloc and 50 for Eisenkot’s—better reflects the final allocation.
  • Netanyahu tied his call for a right-wing government to an opportunity he described as removing Iran’s threat alongside President Trump; this was his stated position, not a result established by the election projections.

What to watch next

  • Whether the Central Elections Committee’s official count confirms or changes the exit-poll estimates and the separate projection based on 48.4% of votes counted.
  • Whether the final seat totals leave either Netanyahu’s bloc or Eisenkot’s opposition at or above the 61-seat majority threshold.
  • Whether Eisenkot follows through on his stated plan to seek a replacement government if the projections prove final.
  • Whether Arab parties’ final seat total affects coalition options, given Eisenkot’s stated reluctance to form a government with them.

How it's being covered

Coverage analysisShow details
8 source articles · 8 unique outlets
Outlet political mix: Center Only· 5 Center · 3 unrated
Where the outlets are based: Asia 50% · Middle East 38% · Other 12%
Outlet political mix
Center Only
Left
Center
Right
0 outlets
5 outlets
0 outlets
The marker shows coverage balance: each unique outlet counts once. 3 unrated outlets are not included.
Geography
Where the outlets covering this story are based.
8 unique outletsDominant coverage: Asia
Coverage imbalance
  • Coverage is currently concentrated among Center-rated outlets (5 of 5 rated sources); comparatively few Left or Right-rated outlets have published on the event.
How we measure coverage

How outlets' accounts compare

1 factual disagreement · 3 framing differences · 2 uncorroborated claims · 1 information gap
Sources disagree on one factual point.Compared across 4 reports whose article text Updat3 read; 4 other outlets were checked by headline only.
Factual disagreements
Sources report different numbers, dates, attribution or causes for the same thing.
  • The Standard’s partial-count estimate gave Netanyahu’s bloc 55 seats and Eisenkot’s 50, while the broadcaster exit-poll figures reported by Türkiye Today, The Sydney Morning Herald and Telangana Tribune put Netanyahu’s bloc at about 50 and Eisenkot’s at 52 to 53.
Updat3: The evidence conflicts; Updat3 does not present either version as established.
Framing / emphasis differences
Sources emphasise different angles, actors or consequences of the same reporting.
  • The Standard foregrounded a partial-count projection that put Netanyahu’s bloc ahead of Eisenkot’s, 55 seats to 50; Türkiye Today, The Sydney Morning Herald and Telangana Tribune foregrounded exit polls that put Eisenkot’s bloc slightly ahead.
  • The Standard’s partial-count estimate placed Arab parties at 15 seats; Türkiye Today and The Sydney Morning Herald reported exit-poll projections of 17 to 18.
  • The eventual seat allocation and which bloc, if any, can form a government remained unresolved while the Central Elections Committee counted votes.
Updat3: These are differences of emphasis, not disputes about what is reported. They do not show that the reported claims are true.
One-sided or uncorroborated claims
Claims that come from one party or one source family and are not independently corroborated.
  • Netanyahu called for a “strong, right-wing national government” and said Israel had an opportunity alongside President Trump to remove what he called Iran’s existential threat.
  • Eisenkot said voters had rejected Netanyahu, and said that if the exit-poll projections held he would seek to replace the government with a Zionist mobilization government.
Updat3: Not independently corroborated yet — treat as a claim, not an established fact.
Not established by the reporting
Information the available reporting does not contain or confirm. This is a gap, not a disagreement.
  • The sources do not provide final official seat totals or a completed account of coalition negotiations.
Updat3: Updat3 cannot conclude anything about this from the current sources.

Timeline

Developments from this story's sources, dated background we compiled and fact-checked, and our earlier coverage. Each row says which.
  1. Israel held its first Knesset election, using proportional representation to allocate seats among party lists.
    Background · compiled and fact-checked by Updat3
  2. Benjamin Netanyahu became prime minister after winning Israel’s first direct election for the office.
    Background · compiled and fact-checked by Updat3
  3. Israel held a Knesset election in which Likud won the most seats but Benjamin Netanyahu did not assemble a majority.
    Background · compiled and fact-checked by Updat3
  4. Benny Gantz, Gideon Sa'ar and Gadi Eisenkot formed the National Unity alliance.
    Background · compiled and fact-checked by Updat3
  5. Israel’s previous general election, held on November 1, 2022, returned Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud as the largest party and gave the bloc supporting him 64 of the Knesset’s 120 seats.
    Background · from our historical context
  6. Netanyahu formed a government on December 29, 2022, with ultra-Orthodox and religious-nationalist parties.
    Background · from our historical context
  7. Benjamin Netanyahu’s new government was sworn in after the 2022 election.
    Background · compiled and fact-checked by Updat3
  8. Benjamin Netanyahu’s government proposed changes to Israel’s judicial system.
    Background · compiled and fact-checked by Updat3
  9. The proposals prompted large demonstrations and opposition from legal officials and reservists; in July 2023, the Knesset passed a law limiting courts’ use of the “reasonableness” standard to review government decisions.
    Background · from our historical context
  10. The coalition’s term was also shaped by the war that began after Hamas-led fighters attacked Israel on October 7, 2023, killing about 1,200 people and taking about 250 hostages, according to Israeli figures.
    Background · from our historical context
  11. Israel’s Supreme Court struck down that amendment on January 1, 2024, in a landmark ruling on the limits of the government’s power to alter Basic Laws.
    Background · from our historical context
  12. Benny Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot left Israel’s emergency government.
    Background · compiled and fact-checked by Updat3

How we got here

Israel’s previous general election, held on November 1, 2022, returned Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud as the largest party and gave the bloc supporting him 64 of the Knesset’s 120 seats. Netanyahu formed a government on December 29, 2022, with ultra-Orthodox and religious-nationalist parties.

That government followed the June 2021 formation of a coalition led by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, which ended Netanyahu’s continuous premiership but lasted only until June 2022. The sequence of elections and coalition changes made the ability to assemble a 61-seat majority central to Israeli government formation.

Related developments1 story

Original sources

8 articles from 8 outlets

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